The Economist February 20th 2021 37
Middle East & AfricaFrance’s forever war
Which way out?
A
t midday onJanuary 2nd the roar of
motorbikes cut through the quiet near
Tchoma Bangou and Zaroumadareye, two
villages in western Niger. Next came the
rat-tat-tat of gunfire. Then the screaming,
as jihadists slaughtered at least 100 people.
That weekend in Bounti, in central Ma-
li, men gathered to celebrate a wedding. As
the smell of grilled mutton wafted into the
air, two French jets swooped in, bombing
the gathering and killing 19 people. The
French government insists it was a jihadist
meeting. Eyewitnesses disagree.
That grim weekend laid bare the conun-
drum of France’s military intervention
(called Operation Barkhane) in Burkina Fa-
so, Mali and Niger, three of Africa’s poorest
countries. Last year conflict claimed some
6,200 lives, a 30% jump over 2019 (see
chart). Fighting has forced almost two mil-
lion people from their homes; 31m are in
need of food. Outside military help is es-
sential to shore up the region’s weak states,
but it is excruciatingly hard to get right.
French troops have been in the Sahel in
force since 2013, when they stopped armed
northern separatists and jihadists from
sweeping towards Bamako, Mali’s capital.
They have stayed to fight jihadists.
Last year France sent another 600 sol-
diers, taking its total to 5,100, in the hope of
gaining the upper hand. It has also drafted
in commandos from European allies.
Thousands of unblue helmets patrol Mali,
while soldiers from the five countries in
the region, known as the g5 Sahel, are alsobattling jihadists.
The French surge has had some suc-
cesses. Last year French and allied forces
killed scores of fighters, particularly those
from Islamic State in the Greater Sahara
(isgs), as well as some of the jihadists’
leaders. Yet groups such as Jama’at Nasr al-
Islam wal Muslimin (jnim), which is link-
ed to al-Qaeda, are proving to be resilient.
Overall, says an American defence official,
“we don’t see anything that is dramatically
turning the tide in favour of governments.”
One reason may be that they have been
too focused on military solutions. Even as
French forces have proved able to “cut the
grass” by killing jihadists, they have been
unable to “stop jihadism from expanding”,
argues Ibrahim Yahaya Ibrahim of the In-
ternational Crisis Group, a Brussels-based
ngo. The militants recruit most easily
from neglected villages without schools
and clinics. France and its partners are
supporting development, too, but many of
the projects have failed.
This leaves France with the challenge
faced by others who have recently fought
insurgencies in places such as Afghanistan
and Iraq. It is that of trying to improve se-
curity—which is almost impossible to do
without development—and also drive de-
velopment—which cannot happen with-
out better security. And France needs to
show progress, or at least find an honoura-
ble way out, in case public support falters.
When Emmanuel Macron, France’s
president, spoke with the leaders of five Sa-
helian countries (including Chad andDAKAR
After years of fighting in the Sahel, is it time to start talking?
→Also in this section
38 The ICC’s new prosecutor
39 Zanzibar’s tree trade
39 Economic misery in Angola
40 Return of an Iranian agitator
41 The princess and the probeSuffering in the Sahel
Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger,
number of deaths from armed conflictSource: ACLED*Includes jihadist groups, ethnic militias,
state security, international forces and others6,0004,0002,0000
20191817162015CivilianNon-civilian*