The Economist February 20th 2021 Middle East & Africa 41When Mr Ahmadinejad asked Mr Kha-
menei for permission to run again in 2017,
the ayatollah told him that it was not in
Iran’s best interests. His candidacy was
eventually rejected by the Guardian Coun-
cil, which oversees electoral matters and is
controlled by Mr Khamenei. Protests over
the economy broke out later that year. Mr
Ahmadinejad’s response was initially
circumspect (angering some), but he
would later criticise all of Iran’s leaders.
More recently he wrote to Vladimir Putin,
Russia’s president, telling him not to stay
in office forever. That was seen as a veiled
message to Mr Khamenei, who now keeps
Mr Ahmadinejad at a distance. The author-
ities have shut down Mr Ahmadinejad’s
website and arrested some of his advisers.
While Mr Ahmadinejad’s relationship
with the clerics has grown worse, his hos-
tility to America seems to be dimming.
During his time in office, America rallied
international support for economic sanc-
tions aimed at stopping Iran’s nuclear pro-
gramme. Mr Ahmadinejad’s threatening
rhetoric made that easier (he once said Is-
rael should be “wiped from the map”). But
in 2019 he called on the Iranian govern-
ment to talk to Donald Trump, then Amer-
ica’s president, who had ditched a deal un-
der which Iran curbed its nuclear pro-
gramme in return for sanctions relief. Per-
haps Mr Ahmadinejad saw something of
himself in Mr Trump, another populist
demagogue who uses language like a club.
Mr Ahmadinejad posts on Twitter (un-
like Mr Trump, who was banned). He
writes notes to Angelina Jolie, an American
movie star, and quotes Tupac Shakur, a de-
ceased American rapper. In January he
spoke to Fox News, a cable network in
America that often has guests who are
hawkish on Iran. “I have sent a letter to
[President Joe] Biden after he was elected,”
said Mr Ahmadinejad. The text of the letter
is vague, but the move suggests he would
be open to dialogue with America’s new
president, too. “He knows many Iranians
have had enough with anti-Americanism
and want a deal with America,” says Mr Zi-
bakalam. “He’s bold enough to do it and,
unlike Rouhani, he does not fear the su-
preme leader’s wrath.”
Will the supreme leader allow him to
run, though? The clerics might see his can-
didacy as a way to get out the vote at a time
of widespread disillusion with the status
quo. But they clearly do not trust him. Mr
Ahmadinejad, for his part, remains coy
about his future. Regardless of whether he
runs, many think he will continue to influ-
ence politics. Critics call him bache-porrou,
a rude child who cannot be tamed. “He’s
trying to remain relevant till the time of
crisis,” says Saeid Golkar, an Iran-watcher
in America. “If the supreme leader dies or
the regime collapses, he wants to be there
to fill the vacuum.”
I
t certainly looks like a video made by
a hostage: a nervous close-up filmed in
a dark room. On February 16th the bbc
broadcast smuggled messages from
Sheikha Latifa, a daughter of Dubai’s
billionaire ruler, Mohammed bin Rashid
al-Maktoum. The princess has twice tried
to flee the emirate, accusing her father of
abuse. He denies the allegations. Her
second escape, in 2018, ended with her
being seized off a yacht in the Indian
Ocean. Now she alleges she is being held
under house arrest, in what she terms
“solitary confinement” without medical
care. The un’s top human-rights body
said it would raise her case with the
United Arab Emirates (uae), of which
Dubai is part.
The tapes overshadowed what was
supposed to be a triumphant moment for
the uae. On February 9th a probe called
Hope finished its seven-month journey
of 493m km (306m miles) to Mars. Its
arrival in Martian orbit made the uae’s
space agency only the fifth to reach the
red planet, and the first from the Arab
world. After two months of course cor-
rections and instrument calibrations it
will begin to study Mars’s atmosphere,
with the first batch of data due for release
in September.
Dubai’s Burj Khalifa, the world’s
tallest building, was lit up in red for the
occasion (pictured). A popular image on
social media showed the rulers of Abu
Dhabi and Dubai, the uae’s capital and its
business hub, strolling hand in hand
with Mars in the background and a space
shuttle blasting off over their shoulders.The shuttle, of course, is a now-defunct
bit of American engineering. The Hope
probe was not a strictly Arab endeavour
either. Under half of the 450-person team
is Emirati, with most of the others drawn
from American universities. It was as-
sembled in Colorado and lofted into
space aboard a Japanese rocket.
Science is often a team sport: Amer-
ican astronauts relied on Russian rockets
to reach orbit after the shuttle was re-
tired. And the Emiratis say they have
learned new skills that will help build an
indigenous space industry. “Five or ten
years from now I’d like to see Emirati
companies and Emirati engineers build-
ing components for space programmes,
not only in the uaebut overseas,” says
Omran Sharaf, the project manager for
the Mars mission.
Even in scientific endeavours,
though, politics are never far off. Signs
on Dubai motorways that typically warn
of collisions or fog instead proclaimed,
in Arabic, “congratulations to the Arabs,
the Hope probe reached Mars”. The uaeis
hardly the first Arab country to try to
export an ideology across the region. In
the 20th century Egypt sought to spread
Arab nationalism, and Saudi Arabia an
austere strain of Islam. However, where-
as they were natural leaders—one the
most populous Arab country, the other
the custodian of Islam’s holiest sites—
the uaehas just 1m citizens and will
mark its 50th birthday only in December.
The uaeposits itself as a post-ide-
ological country, the sort that would
make a national celebration of launching
a spacecraft to propel science education.
That is its own kind of ideology, one that
resonates in less functional Arab states.
In Lebanon, for example, some noted the
contrast with their own country. Since
the Hope probe began its journey, Beirut
was devastated by a massive explosion
and politicians have spent months bick-
ering over cabinet posts in a bankrupt
state. Other Arabs joked about modest
infrastructure projects in their countries
which have dragged on for far longer
than six months.
Mr Sharaf describes the Mars mission
as a challenge to other Arab states: “If the
uaecan reach Mars in less than 50 years,
then you can do more, given your histo-
ry.” That is a compelling message. But the
uaealso has room to improve, in the
areas of human rights and liberty, as the
saga of Sheikha Latifa shows.The United Arab EmiratesHope and despair
DUBAI
A probe journeys into outer space; a princess cannot leave her villaTo Mars, or solitary confinement