The Economist - USA (2021-02-20)

The Economist February 20th 2021 Business 57

W

hen willmost people be back at

the office? As with Tantalus and the

fruit tree, the prize seems to be close,

only to recede out of reach. A survey

conducted by Morgan Stanley, an in-

vestment bank, found that employees

have adjusted their expectations for

when they are likely to repopulate their

desks, moving the date back from April

to June. Given the slow pace of vaccina-

tions in some countries, even that may

be optimistic.

Companies have also had to adjust

their expectations. Brian Kropp of Gart-

ner, a research and advisory firm, says

that businesses have gone through three

phases. In the first, during the spring of

2020, they thought that the pandemic

would be short-lived and that corporate

life would soon return to normal. In the

second, economic restrictions seemed

set to last indefinitely and companies

figured there was little point in planning

for a post-pandemic world. In the third,

current, stage the vaccines have brought

hope of a reversion to normality, and

businesses are trying to work out what

the new world will look like.

Interestingly, Mr Kropp observes that

views have switched since the start of the

pandemic. A year ago, many executives

were dubious that productivity could be

maintained if employees worked from

home. Staff, meanwhile, enjoyed the

greater flexibility. Now managers are

much more comfortable with the idea.

But employees are hankering after the

office, at least for part of the time.

This employee restlessness seems to

relate to the sheer length of the lock-

down. The novelty has worn off and

working from home seems much less

appealing in winter. And the time spent

on screen has led to a feeling of fatigue.

It has also led to increased stress. A

study of 1,500 workers in 46 countries by

the Harvard Business Reviewfound that

85% said their well-being had declined

and 55% felt they had not been able to

balance their work and home lives.

The problems are physical as well as

mental. A survey of Italian workers found

that 50% reported greater neck pain, and

38% increased lower-back pain, while

working remotely. This is probably be-

cause home furniture is not designed to

accommodate extensive computer use.

This does not mean that workers want

to go back to the old days entirely. The

Morgan Stanley survey found that em-

ployees said that, in future, they would

like to work from home for two days a

week, on average, compared with just one

day a week before covid-19.

When people do come back, mask-

wearing and social distancing will have to

continue for a while. Even if they legally

can, few employers will force their em-

ployees to get vaccinated, not least be-

cause of the furore this might arouse.

Gartner surveyed 116 human-resources

professionals and only 9% were planning

to mandate vaccination. This may mean

that 30-35% of American worker will not

be vaccinated, Gartner says. They will be

vulnerable to catching the virus at work.

Another problem for companies is

that employees have become less loyal as

the pandemic has progressed. Mr Kropp

says that workers are spending more

time looking for jobs online and up-

dating their LinkedIn profiles. Since few

businesses are hiring at the moment, not

many employees have left. But when the

economy opens up again, there might be

a rush for the exit.

The urge to depart may not be uni-

versal. As Bartleby has argued before, the

pandemic has divided workers into

slackers and Stakhanovites. The first

group are getting away with the mini-

mum effort. The second are working

even longer hours than before. It is the

Stakhanovites who are more likely to

leave, Mr Kropp argues, if they feel their

efforts are not adequately rewarded.

All this presents challenges for man-

agers who are planning a return to nor-

mal. They may have to redesign their

offices to create more distance between

desks, and come up with a system for

allocating space to employees who may

turn up for just three days a week. They

need to recreate camaraderie within

their teams and make sure their best

employees do not head out the door.

Issues of equity may be trickiest of all

to deal with. Women appear to be keener

on working from home than men are. But

Mr Kropp warns that managers have a

tendency to reward those employees

whom they can see, at the expense of

those with whom they have reduced

contact. That could widen the existing

gender pay gap. In short, when the all-

clear finally sounds, that may be just the

start of managers’ problems.

Returning to the office will be tricky

BartlebyBack for good, or bad

at home (by Shopify in Amazon’s American
backyard, and Meituan and Pinduoduo in
Alibaba’s), as well as in places like Latin
America (by Argentina’s MercadoLibre) or
South-East Asia (by Sea, a Singaporean
group). The upstarts’ sales have soared of
late (see chart on previous page). In the
past 12 months they have more than qua-
drupled their combined stockmarket val-
ue, to $1trn.
With no known plans to expand abroad,
Coupang’s prospects depend on fending
off local rivals. These range from the e-
commerce arms of big conglomerates such

as Lotte and Shinsegae to internet plat-

forms like Naver and upstarts like Baemin,

a food-delivery service backed by Germa-

ny’s Delivery Hero. To extend its dom-

inance Coupang must thus continue to

nurture the customer goodwill it has gar-

nered thanks to those pre-dawn deliveries.

The firm prides itself on employing deliv-

ery workers directly, and has a newsroom

section dedicated to correcting allega-

tions, for instance over working condi-

tions, that it deems false or distorted. But it

has not escaped scrutiny of the e-com-

merce industry. Earlier this month it had to

apologise after a government commission

classified the death of a young contract

worker at one of its logistics centres as an

industrial accident.

Even if it manages to keep consumers

on its side, as seems likely, long-term

growth could require looking beyond ful-

filment and logistics, thinks Ms Kim. Mer-

cadoLibre and Sea owe significant chunks

of their rich valuations to adjacent busi-

nesses, from e-payments to gaming. To

thrive in South Korea’s isolated online eco-

system, Coupang may need to occupy

more than one niche.