Barron's - USA (2021-02-22)

(Antfer) #1

M4 BARRON’S February 22, 2021


EUROPEAN TRADER


D


ay trading has exploded

among a new generation of

retail investors —and U.K.-

based online platformIG

Group Holdingsis hoping to catch the

wave.

In its biggest acquisition ever, IG

(ticker: IGG.UK) is spending $1 billion to

buy Chicago-based Tastytrade. The finan-

cial network offers online streaming of

market commentary and trading strategies

on its own website and other platforms,

while its Tastyworks brokerage arm gives

clients the ability to trade stocks, options,

futures, and cryptocurrencies.

The deal is the first big strategic move

by June Felix, who took over from Peter

Hetherington as chief executive officer

of FTSE 250–listed IG Group in 2018.

The question for investors is whether

the acquisition comes near the top of a

short-lived Covid-inspired boom in trad-

ing at home, or hitches IG to a long-term

shift in how retail investors engage as

traders.

“We are confident that there is a long-

term shift in self-directed investing and

trading. The U.S. is a critical market with

big promise, and Tastytrade is a high-

margin, high-growth business estab-

lished by trading veterans with a record,”

Felix tellsBarron’s.

The market is certainly hot: Amateur

traders stuck at home for months have

embraced not only stock trading but also

plunged into riskier options bets, helping

to drive volume to record levels in 2020

while inflicting losses on a string of so-

phisticated hedge funds.

U.S. options trading hit its highest vol-

ume month ever in December, according

to Jefferies, and that pace has continued

in January. The market has expanded at a

24% compound annual growth rate since

2017, with Tastytrade increasing at three

times the market over the same period.

The U.S. currently makes up about 4%

of IG’s sales, but Tastytrade is expected to

make it the group’s second-largest mar-

ket. It will also add listed futures and

options to IG, and has already added for-

eign-exchange trading.

IG was founded in 1974 by Stuart

Wheeler, who died last year at age 85.

The company allowed small investors to

bet on commodities, currencies, stock

indexes, and sports. It listed on the Lon-

don Stock Exchange in 2000 and now

has a market value of almost 2.9 billion

pounds sterling ($4 billion).

Analysts have concerns about the

price IG paid for Tastytrade, and inves-

tors also seem unconvinced about the

deal: IG shares dropped as much as 9%

on the day the deal was announced,

though the stock is still up more than

12% over the past year. Tastytrade’s val-

uation looks full, at 18 times historic

earnings before interest, tax, deprecia-

tion, and amortization, or Ebitda, “in

what is likely to have been a year of su-

pernormal earnings,” Shore Capital an-

alyst Vivek Raja wrote in a recent re-

search note.

IG trades at about 8.5 times historic

earnings per share, and its U.K. rival

CMC Markets(CMCX.UK) at less than

seven times historic earnings.

There are other risks: Tastytrade will

diversify IG’s business, but will subject

the company to additional U.S. regulatory

supervision, said analysts at credit-rat-

ings firm Fitch Group.

“We are comfortable with the valua-

tion. If you look at the intrinsic growth of

Tastytrade, it has excellent potential and

there are clear synergies which we have

not yet outlined,” Felix says.

Market volatility helped drive up

IG’s trading volumes and client base.

The number of IG’s active clients rose

55% to 238,600 in the six months to

Nov. 30.

“We can’t control the market and we

can’t control volatility. But we can attract

the right clients,” Felix notes.B

By Lina Saigol

EMERGING MARKETS


Frontier Tech Stars Have


Momentum for Now


T


ired of reaping superprofits

from the Chinese internet?

Perhaps you suspect that

growth may be peaking atTen-

cent Holdings(ticker: 700.Hong Kong) or

Meituan(3690.Hong Kong). Adventurous

investors might look for the next breakout

tech star in second-tier emerging markets

like Turkey or Indonesia, or farther afield

to the likes of Nigeria and Kazakhstan.

The growth of the online economy has,

theoretically, greater scope in less devel-

oped countries. The fewer legacy banks,

credit cards, and stores, the more oppor-

tunity for new digital players to offer fi-

nance, payments, and shopping. This

leapfrog effect has played out spectacu-

larly in China. Now, it’s moving every-

where. “Fintech is the strongest substory

in the larger emerging tech story,” says

Kevin Carter, founder of theEMQQ

Emerging Markets Internet and Ecom-

merceexchange-traded fund (EMQQ).

A surprise darling is Kazakhstan-based

Kaspi.kz(KSPI.United Kingdom). Start-

ing with a bricks-and-mortar bank, this

company has developed a “super app”—

combining financial services, shopping,

and payments—that dominates its home

country of 19 million with eyes on 70 mil-

lion more customers across Central Asia

and the Caucasus. The stock has nearly

doubled since an initial public offering last

October. “Consumer banking penetration

in Kazakhstan is just 6.7% of gross domes-

tic product,” says Sandeep Srinivas, a fund

manager at frontier markets investor FIM.

“That is a long runway for growth.”

Safaricom(SCOM.Kenya) in Kenya is

a role model for frontier fintech with its

ubiquitous M-Pesa mobile payments net-

work. Its stock has gained a respectable,

by raging bull standards, one-third over

the past six months. But the market sen-

sation in Africa is Nigeria-basedJumia

Technologies(JMIA), which combines

payments with an Amazon-style e-com-

merce platform and logistics arm. Its

shares have quadrupled since October,

when renowned short seller Andrew Left

withdrew fraud accusations and called

the company a Buy.

If frontier markets are a leap too far,

you could look to Indonesia, where

shares in point-of-sale payments cham-

pionDistribusi Voucher Nusantara

(DIVA.Indonesia) have quadrupled from

a low point last May. The company has

already installed eight million Square-

esque systems, a first step toward

broader financial services for the “many

unbanked small businesses” across the

sprawling nation of 270 million, says

Jinjoo Hong, an equity sales broker at

Auerbach Grayson.

Her colleague Simon Mandel likes

Logo Yazilim Sanayi ve Tikaret

(LOGO. Turkey), a Turkish business soft-

ware provider that operates half the

country’s customer-relationship manage-

ment systems. It’s riding an analogous

wave of formalization in a big country

with a multitude of cash-based mom-

and-pop shops. Shares are up by half

sinceNovember.

Among companies that haven’t broken

out yet, Mandel suggestsSinqia

(SQIA3.Brazil), a Brazilian bank software

specialist, orFrontier Digital Ventures

(FDV.Australia), which owns two dozen

property and auto sales portals from the

Philippines to Paraguay. “Most of these

were previously in the red. They have

turned them profitable,” he says.

Alison Graham, chief investment offi-

cer at frontier investor Voltan Capital

Management, flags “the Expedia of Latin

America,” Argentina-basedDespegar

(DESP). Shares have doubled from a No-

vember nadir, but are still a bit off pre-

pandemic levels.

Bear in mind that these next-wave tech

pioneers can crash as well as soar. “Jumia

is the most volatile stock I’ve ever

owned,” says EMQQ’s Carter. But they

have momentum for the momentB

By Craig Mellow

IG Group Rides the


At-Home Trading Boom

Free download pdf