We need to look at the concept of Run Expectancy(RE). Run
expectancy is how many runs we can expect to score, on average, given a
specific base/out state. Base/out state is also simple: it’s a situation, such
as runners on first and third with one out. Every hitter comes to the plate
in a base/out state; it could be 2 outs and bases empty, or no one out and
the bases loaded. There are 24 possible base/out states. For every
base/out state, there is a mountain of MLB data that shows the
probability of a run scoring in that situation, and how many runs score
on average in any given situation (run expectancy). Following is the run
expectancy matrix of 2010 - 2015.^8
In the situation above, I have highlighted the base/out states we are
RE No Out 1 Out 2 OutEmpty 0.481 0.254 0.0981B (^0). 859 0.509 0.224
2B (^1). 100 0. 664 0.319
3B 1.350 (^0). 950 0.353
1B / 2B (^1). 437 0.884 0.429
1B / 3B 1.784 1.130 0.478
2B / 3B 1.964 (^1). 376 0.580
1B / 2B / 3B 2.292 1.541 0.752