Maths Inside Baseball

(qra1234) #1

regardless of how many runs are earned. The following table presents the
chance that a run will score at some point in the inning, from each
base/out state.​^8


Looking at the statistics there are cases where bunt definitely increases
the run percentage.



  • No Out 2B (0.614) → 1 Out 3B (0.660)

  • No Out 1B, 2B (0.610)→ 1 Out 2B, 3B (0.676)


But think that we have to consider that increase of run probability is
under condition where the bunt was successful and has actually


R​P No Out^ 1 Out^ 2 Out^

Empty 0.268 0.155 0.067

1B (^0). 416  0.265 0.127
2B (^0). 614  0. 397  0.216
3B 0.843 (^0). 660  0.257
1B / 2B (^0). 610  0.406 0.222
1B / 3B 0.860 0.634 0.270
2B / 3B 0.852 (^0). 676  0.260
1B / 2B / 3B 0.861 0.657 0.316

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