plate appearances without sacrifice bunts). There is a 29.6% chance of
increasing our run probability. If he fails to get on base(out), it will
reduce the run probability.
P(OB)= 29. 6 %,
P(O)=P(OBC)= 1 −P(OB)= 70. 4 %There is a 70.4% chance of decrease in our run probability.
Following is the table of bat results of Elvis until that plate appearance
when he managed to get on-base. Probability is calculated by dividing by
328, total bat opportunities.
To calculate the run probability depending on bat results when Elvis had
hit, we need to think about the base/run situation which the results may
lead to.
BB or HBP always makes the situation no out, runners on 1st and 2nd
(0.610). The Situation ends up differently by baserunning of the first
runner, Choo. A base hit from Elvis can lead to first and second, or first
and third. A double from Elvis also may or may not lead to a run. Let's
1BH 2BH 3BH HR BB HBP OBPFreq. 55 13 1 3 25 0 97 Prob. 0.168 0.040 0.003 0.009 0.076 0.000 0.296Perc. 6.8% 4% 0.3% 0.9% 7.6% 0% 29.6%