assume that two outcomes have a 50/50 chance. A triple or homer will
always score a run, unless the runner trips over.
Now the outs. Following is the table of bat results of Elvis until that plate
appearance when he managed to get on-base.
Bat-Result
(On-Base)Probability Outcome
SituationRun
Probability1BH 8.4% 1B, 2B 0.6101BH 8.4% 1B, 3B 0.8602BH 2% 2B, 3B 0.8522BH 2% Run 1.0003BH 0.3% Run 1.000HR 0.9% Run 1.000BB 7.6% 1B, 2B 0.610GB GB
(E)PU FO LD SO Out +
ErrorFreq
.84 6 19 42 33 47 231