Maths Inside Baseball

Elvis will likely get only a single out but double plays may happen when
runner is at first. Let's assume that half of the ground balls lead to a
double play, and the other half he was safe on first as a fielder's choice.

Now we have calculated the change in run probability depending on the
bat result of Elvis, when he had hit the ball instead of bunt. Using these
results, we can create a final graph representing the probability for each
run probability to happen after Elvis’s batting, by combining the
probability of bat results based on the same resulting run probability.

Pro

b.

0.256 0.018 0.058 0.128 0.101 0.143 0.704

Perc

.

25.6% 1.8% 5.8% 12.8% 10.1% 14.3% 70.4%

Bat result (Out) Probability

Outcome

Situation

( 1 out) Run Probability

GB+E 13.70% 1B 0.265

GB+E 13.70% 2​ Outs 0.067

PU 5.80% 1B 0.265

FO 12.80% 1B 0.265

LD 10.10% 1B 0.265

SO 14.30% 1B 0.265