Even though there was a possibility of dramatically increasing the run
probability (0.8<), there was the same chance of also dramatically
decreasing the probability(0.067). Rather betting on low probability of
gradual increment, Rangers dugout determined that Elvis should bunt.
So until now, based on the statistics, it seems a reasonable decision for
Elvis to bunt in that situation.
However, let's look at the next batter, who has to bring the runner in
from second to home. After Elvis’ sacrifice, everything is on the next
batter, Martin Leonys. This decision seems odd then--Leonys was even
worse hitter than Elvis. His statistics were falling from Elvis in almost all
areas of indicators.
This is where the bench comes in. Regardless of past statistics, players
have different conditions everyday. Coches check each player’s body
condition and balances, and put into account for selecting players in the
game. If a player is playing well, they are likely to receive more chances
from manager and coaches, regardless of previous statistics. From
Run Probability Probability Outcome Situation
1.000 3.2% Run
0.860 8.4% 1B, 3B
0.852 2% 2B, 3B
0.610 16% 1B, 2B
0.265 56.7% 1 Out, 1B
0.067 13.7% 2 Outs (empty)