Article
and Technology Development Fund (JPMEERF15S11407 and JPMEERF20202002) of the
Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan, and used the supercomputer
of AFFRIT, MAFF, Japan. S. Fujimori, T. Hasegawa and W.W. were supported by the Environment
Research and Technology Development Fund (JPMEERF20202002) of the Environmental
Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan and JSPS KAKENHI (JP20K20031, 19K24387) of
the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science. S. Fujimori and T. Hasegawa were supported
by the Sumitomo Foundation. M.D.M. acknowledges support from the MIUR Rita Levi
Montalcini programme. F.H. and D.L. received funding from the ENGAGE project of the
European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement
- J.C.D. acknowledges support from the SIM4NEXUS project of the European Union’s
Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement 689150. A.D.P.,
S.L.L.H. and A. Purvis were funded by the UK Natural Environment Research Council (grant
number NE/M014533/1 to A. Purvis), the Natural History Museum Departmental Investment
Fund and the Prince Albert II of Monaco Foundation (Plants Under Pressure II). T.N. is funded by
a University Research Fellowship from the Royal Society and by a grant from the UK Natural
Research Council (NE/R010811/1). D.P.v.V. acknowledges partial support from the European
Research Council under the grant agreement 819566 (PICASSO). M.O. acknowledges support
from the European Research Council under the grant agreement 610028 (IMBALANCE-P).
H.v.M. and A.T. acknowledge partial support from the Dutch Knowledge Base programme
Circular and Climate neutral society of the Dutch ministry of LNV. R. Alkemade, J.P.H. and
A.M.S. acknowledge support from the GLOBIO project of the PBL Netherlands Environmental
Assessment Agency. G.S.T., M.J., M.O. and P.V. acknowledge support from the Norwegian
Ministry of Climate and Environment through Norway’s International Climate and Forest
Initiative (NICFI) under grant agreement 18/4135. B.B.N.S. acknowledges funding by the
Serrapilheira Institute (grant number Serra-1709-19329).
Author contributions D.L. and M.O. led the study. D.L. coordinated the modelling, performed
the analysis, coordinated the writing of the preliminary draft and performed the writing of later
drafts. D.L., M.B., S.H.M.B., A.C., A.D.P., F.A.J.D., M.D.M., J.C.D., M.D., R.F., M. Harfoot,
T. Hasegawa, S.H., J.P.H., S.L.L.H., F.H., N.J., T. Krisztin, G.M.M., H.O., A. Popp, A. Purvis, A.M.S.,
A.T., H.V., H.v.M., W.J.v.Z. and P.V. were involved in the core modelling and writing. R. Alkemade,
R. Almond, G.B., N.D.B., S.E.C., F.D.F., S. Ferrier, S. Fritz, S. Fujimori, M.G., T. Harwood, P.H.,
M. Herrero, A.J.H., M.J., T. Kram, H.L.-C., T.M., C.M., D.N., T.N., G.S.-T., E.S., B.B.N.S., D.P.v.V., C.W.,
J.E.M.W., W.W. and L.Y. contributed through several iterations to the study design, result
analysis and article writing.
Competing interests WWF supported the research in kind and funding for editorial and
research support.
Additional information
Supplementary information is available for this paper at https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-
2705-y.
Correspondence and requests for materials should be addressed to D.L. or M.O.
Peer review information Nature thanks Brett Bryan, Carlo Rondinini and the other, anonymous,
reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work.
Reprints and permissions information is available at http://www.nature.com/reprints.