544 | Nature | Vol 585 | 24 September 2020
Article
- Golledge, N. R. et al. The multi-millennial Antarctic commitment to future sea-level rise.
Nature 526 , 421–425 (2015). - Winkelmann, R., Levermann, A., Ridgwell, A. & Caldeira, K. Combustion of available
fossil fuel resources sufficient to eliminate the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Sci. Adv. 1 ,
e1500589 (2015). - Robinson, A., Calov, R. & Ganopolski, A. Multistability and critical thresholds of the
Greenland ice sheet. Nat. Clim. Chang. 2 , 429–432 (2012). - Huybrechts, P. Formation and disintegration of the Antarctic ice sheet. Ann. Glaciol. 20 ,
336–340 (1994). - DeConto, R. M. & Pollard, D. Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise.
Nature 531 , 591–597 (2016). - Sutter, J., Gierz, P., Grosfeld, K., Thoma, M. & Lohmann, G. Ocean temperature
thresholds for Last Interglacial West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse. Geophys. Res. Lett.
43 , 2675–2682 (2016). - Golledge, N. R., Levy, R. H., McKay, R. M. & Naish, T. R. East Antarctic ice sheet
most vulnerable to Weddell Sea warming. Geophys. Res. Lett. 44 , 2343–2351
(2017). - Pattyn, F. et al. The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets under 1.5 °C global warming. Nat.
Clim. Chang. 8 , 1053–1061 (2018). - Pollard, D. & DeConto, R. M. Modelling West Antarctic ice sheet growth and collapse
through the past five million years. Nature 458 , 329–332 (2009). - Alley, R. B. et al. Oceanic forcing of ice-sheet retreat: West Antarctica and more. Annu.
Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 43 , 207–231 (2015). - Dutton, A. et al. Sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods.
Science 349 , aaa4019 (2015). - Pollard, D. & DeConto, R. M. Hysteresis in Cenozoic Antarctic ice-sheet variations. Glob.
Planet. Change 45 , 9–21 (2005). - Gasson, E. G. W., DeConto, R. M., Pollard, D. & Levy, R. Dynamic Antarctic ice sheet during
the early to mid-Miocene. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 113 , 3459–3464 (2016). - Liu, Z. et al. Global cooling during the Eocene-Oligocene climate transition. Science 323 ,
1187–1190 (2009). - Hansen, J., Sato, M., Russell, G. & Kharecha, P. Climate sensitivity, sea level and
atmospheric carbon dioxide. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 371 , 20120294 (2013). - Rahmstorf, S. & England, M. H. Influence of Southern Hemisphere winds on North Atlantic
Deep Water flow. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 27 , 2040–2054 (1997). - Albrecht, T., Winkelmann, R. & Levermann, A. Glacial-cycle simulations of the Antarctic
Ice Sheet with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM)—Part 1: Boundary conditions and
climatic forcing. Cryosphere 14 , 599–632 (2020).
38. Schmidtko, S., Heywood, K. J., Thompson, A. F. & Aoki, S. Multidecadal warming of
Antarctic waters. Science 346 , 1227–1231 (2014).
39. Mouginot, J., Rignot, E. & Scheuchl, B. Sustained increase in ice discharge from the
Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica, from 1973 to 2013. Geophys. Res. Lett.
41 , 1576–1584 (2014).
40. Rignot, E., Mouginot, J., Morlighem, M., Seroussi, H. & Scheuchl, B. Widespread, rapid
grounding line retreat of Pine Island, Thwaites, Smith, and Kohler glaciers, West
Antarctica, from 1992 to 2011. Geophys. Res. Lett. 41 , 3502–3509 (2014).
41. Favier, L. et al. Retreat of Pine Island Glacier controlled by marine ice-sheet instability.
Nat. Clim. Chang. 4 , 117–121 (2014).
42. Joughin, I., Smith, B. E. & Medley, B. Marine ice sheet collapse potentially under way for
the Thwaites Glacier Basin, West Antarctica. Science 344 , 735–738 (2014).
43. Naish, T. R. et al. Obliquity-paced Pliocene West Antarctic ice sheet oscillations. Nature
458 , 322–328 (2009).
44. Levermann, A. et al. The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming. Proc.
Natl Acad. Sci. USA 110 , 13745–13750 (2013).
45. Mengel, M. & Levermann, A. Ice plug prevents irreversible discharge from East Antarctica.
Nat. Clim. Chang. 4 , 451–455 (2014).
46. Golledge, N. R. et al. Antarctic climate and ice-sheet configuration during the early
Pliocene interglacial at 4.23 Ma. Clim. Past 13 , 959–975 (2017).
47. Golledge, N. R. et al. Global environmental consequences of twenty-first-century
ice-sheet melt. Nature 566 , 65–72 (2019).
48. Bassis, J. N. & Walker, C. C. Upper and lower limits on the stability of calving glaciers from
the yield strength envelope of ice. Proc. R. Soc. A 468 , 913–931 (2012).
49. Edwards, T. L. et al. Revisiting Antarctic ice loss due to marine ice-cliff instability. Nature
566 , 58–64 (2019).
50. Meredith, M. et al. Polar regions. In IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a
Changing Climate (eds Pörtner, H.-O. et al.) https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/
chapter-3-2/ (in the press).
51. Schellnhuber, H. J., Rahmstorf, S. & Winkelmann, R. Why the right climate target was
agreed in Paris. Nat. Clim. Chang. 6 , 649–653 (2016).
52. Lenton, T. M. et al. Climate tipping points—too risky to bet against. Nature 575 ,
592–595 (2019).
Publisher’s note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in
published maps and institutional affiliations.
© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited 2020