THENEWYORKER,MARCH8, 2021 11
COMMENT
GETTINGCLOSE?
O
ptimism is one of the things that
the coronavirus pandemic has made
it hard to hold on to, or even to measure.
Going through the data can have a see-
sawing effect on a person’s state of mind.
Last week, Johnson & Johnson an-
nounced that, in trials, its COVID-19 vac-
cine had an efficacy rate of more than
sixty-six per cent in preventing moder-
ate to severe disease, and was eighty-
five per cent effective at preventing se-
vere to critical cases—and that no one
who got the vaccine was hospitalized
or died because of covid-19. On Fr i d a y,
the Food and Drug Administration’s
vaccine-advisory committee voted, unan-
imously, to recommend that it become
the third vaccine to be given an emer-
gency-use authorization in the United
States. It could be deployed as soon as
this week.
Should one’s mood be lowered by
the knowledge that the two vaccines
that were previously approved, from
Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna, have
higher efficacy rates—around ninety-
five per cent? (Not really; the J. & J.
numbers are still very good.) Alterna-
tively, should one’s mood get an upswing
from the knowledge that, unlike with
the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines, only
one J. & J. shot is required, and that the
vaccine can be stored in a normal re-
frigerator? (Definitely.) Is there a sign
that vaccinations, along with the end of
the holiday season and a growing will-
ingness to wear masks, are, finally, al-
tering the trajectory of the pandemic?
(Yes: since the beginning of the year,
the average daily number of new cases
in the United States has fallen by three-
quarters; worldwide, the number is half
of what it was.) Thankfully, the ups seem
to be beating the downs.
Yet joy can be hard to come by, be-
cause of the weight of what the country
is still going through. The average daily
number of deaths is about two thou-
sand—a sharp drop from mid-January,
when it was well above three thousand,
but quadruple what it was last July. And,
as February ended, there seemed to be
something of a wavering in the progress—
perhaps because extreme weather caused
disruptions or, more ominously, because
of the spread of what appear to be more
infectious variants.
The biggest brake on optimism con-
cerns those variants: the British, the
Brazilian, and the South African. The
J. & J. vaccine held up well in large-
scale trials in South Africa. There is ev-
ILLUSTRATIONS BY JOÃO FAZENDA
THE TALK OF THE TOWN
idence that other vaccines will not work
quite as well against that variant or,
apparently, against the Brazilian one,
though vaccine makers are working on
boosters to address that issue. The vac-
cines do appear to be effective against
the quickly spreading British variant.
But the fear is that variants may yet
outpace vaccinations. The race is still
on: a new variant with worrisome mu-
tations seems to be gaining ground in
New York City.
Two White House commemorations
last week embodied the lurch between
pain and progress. The first, on Mon-
day evening, was held on the South Por-
tico, to mark half a million recorded U.S.
COVID-19 deaths. Before calling for a
moment of silence, President Biden
urged Americans not to become “numb
to sorrow.” Just three days later, Biden,
with Vice-President Kamala Harris and
Dr. Anthony Fauci, watched four front-
line workers get their first shots at an
event billed as “50 Million COVID Vac-
cinations.” The “50 Million,” as Biden
made clear, referred only to the num-
ber of doses administered since he was
inaugurated. The total is approaching
seventy million doses, with twenty mil-
lion people fully vaccinated. Biden of-
fered a stream of banter about how the
shot doesn’t really hurt, then cautioned,
“This is not a victory lap.” But, he added,
“we’re getting close.”
It is hard to cheer unabashedly when
the distribution of vaccines has been
such a mess. Donald Trump had no real
plan, and left matters such as eligibil-
ity to the states. The Biden Adminis-
tration has been far more involved, but
the system remains fragmented. Just
