28 Europe The EconomistJune 29th 2019
2 Opposition figures are used to attacking
Mr Erdogan. Mr Imamoglu ignored him. By
running an upbeat campaign, focusing on
the rule of law, and being as inclusive as
Turkey’s leader has been divisive, he has
made inroads with conservative voters,
something his party has not done in de-
cades. Assuming that he can reshape the
chpin his own image and run Istanbul as
successfully as Mr Erdogan did in the
1990s, the new mayor may soon shine on
the national stage, predicts Fehmi Koru, a
newspaper columnist.
It may be too early to proclaim Mr Ima-
moglu’s success a victory for Turkish de-
mocracy, or the beginning of the end of the
Erdogan era. Turkey’s prisons remain
packed with thousands of people arrested
on outrageously vague charges in the after-
math of a bloody coup attempt in 2016.
They include over a hundred journalists,
thousands of bureaucrats and ten mps from
the country’s leading Kurdish party, in-
cluding Selahattin Demirtas, a former
presidential contender.
The media have been bought off or de-
fanged. Criticism of Mr Erdogan is off lim-
its. No big news outlet dares to touch re-
ports of widespread corruption. Dissent is
rare, and punished with tear gas or arrest
when it spills onto the streets. Sixteen ac-
tivists face “aggravated life sentences”
(meaning they must in theory serve at least
36 years) for their role in mass protests six
years ago. One of them was released on
June 25th after seven months behind bars.
Another, Osman Kavala, was remanded in
custody. He has now spent nearly two years
in prison.
Mr Erdogan himself remains popular
and in charge. He enjoys sweeping powers,
which he can use to undermine Mr Imamo-
glu, plus the support of the country’s big-
gest nationalist party, which gives him
control of the parliament. He does not have
to face another election for four years.
But the ground beneath him is shifting.
Emboldened by Mr Imamoglu’s success,
some estranged akluminaries, including a
former president, seem poised to launch
one or more breakaway parties. The econ-
omy, which only recently emerged from re-
cession, may turn down again this year.
America may impose sanctions over Mr Er-
dogan’s purchase of a Russian missile-de-
fence system. It has already suspended
Turkey’s participation in the f-35 fighter
programme. Unless Mr Erdogan convinces
Donald Trump to grant Turkey a waiver, ad-
ditional sanctions will kick in when the
missile batteries arrive from Russia.
The opposition has the wind in its sails.
Mr Imamoglu has a real chance to heal a di-
vided society. “The era of partisanship is
over,” he said in his victory speech. “The era
of rights, law and justice is here.” Else-
where, those words would sound bland. In
today’s Turkey, they are revolutionary. 7C
hinese lanterns painted with the
word “Ik” drift across the evening sky.
Waving red Albanian flags emblazoned
with its double-headed black eagle, as well
as European Union and American ones, the
crowd chants “Rama Ik! Rama Ik! Rama Ik!”
Since February, in a series of mass protests,
the opposition has been demanding that
Edi Rama, the prime minister, must—in
one word—go. During such raucous de-
monstrations, firecrackers and paint
bombs are regularly hurled at his office.
Lulzim Basha, leader of the opposition
Democratic Party, which has led the prot-
ests, tells his supporters: “I won’t let this
country slip into eastern despotic ways!”
But as chaos in parliament and on the
streets persists, Albania’s chances of being
embraced by the eu are dwindling.
A year ago the eu laid out a string of con-
ditions before negotiations to join the club
could begin. On May 29th a European Com-
mission report recommended that they
should go ahead. But on June 18th several
eu countries slammed on the brakes. It was
a bitter blow, though the Albanian govern-ment had expected it. Mr Rama insisted
that his country’s efforts to join the eu
would continue, and blamed governments
pandering to populist parties for keeping it
out. North Macedonia, which has made
better progress towards meeting the eu’s
requirements, was also rebuffed.
But its chaotic politics mean that Alba-
nia looks increasingly ill-qualified to join
the club. On June 30th elections for mayors
and municipal councils are meant to take
place. Mr Rama says they will go ahead,
though President Ilir Meta has said he has
cancelled them because of the situation.
The electoral college backs the government
but Mr Basha says the elections are illegal
and is boycotting them. Mr Basha had
banked on international approval of his
protests and boycott of parliament, but has
failed to get it. Attacks by his supporters on
places where the polls are due to be held
have been met by rebukes from foreign
governments.
If the elections do go ahead, Mr Basha’s
party will lose the jobs and patronage that
local government confers. At the same time
the parliament, in which Mr Rama’s Social-
ist Party has a narrow majority, has begun
moves to impeach President Meta. The law,
says Erion Veliaj, the Socialist mayor of Ti-
rana, the capital, is “very clear. If you try to
stop people voting, you go to jail.”
Mr Basha has been trying to prove that
Mr Rama was helped by organised-crime
bosses to win the last general election, in- Mr Rama denies it and says he will sue
the journalist who is making the allega-
tions in a German paper. On June 17th Mr
Basha was in his turn called to answer alle-
gations about illegal party financing. Mr
Basha says the charges are false.
In 1997 there was a complete collapse of
law and order in Albania when citizens
seized tanks and forced the then president,
Sali Berisha, Mr Basha’s mentor, to resign.
Democracy has enough of a foothold to
make this very unlikely to happen again; all
the same, politics in Albania is a nasty
business. The main parties are tied to clans
with unsavoury connections. Mr Basha
claims that the enemies of organised-
crime bosses allied to the Socialists have
made overtures to him, which he has re-
buffed. “It is not the collusion of govern-
ment and organised crime, it is a fusion,”
he says. But Mr Rama says that if such accu-
sations were true the European Commis-
sion would not have recommended the
opening of euaccession talks, albeit that
euleaders decided to postpone them.
However chaotic the current situation,
at least Albania’s courts, under the aegis of
the European Commission, are being
cleaned up a bit. Judges and prosecutors
are being screened for unexplained wealth,
links to organised crime and general profi-
ciency. Out of 140 screened so far, only 53
have been given the all-clear. 7
TIRANA
Albania’s bid to join the European
Union will fail until it cleans upAlbaniaAll blocked
Rama slammed in Tirana