58 China The EconomistJune 29th 2019
S
trikingly often, campaigners for Western-style freedoms in
Hong Kong pretend that they are not seeking a fight with the
Communist Party of China. Rather, activists say that their goals
and those of party chiefs in Beijing should be nicely aligned: both
camps seek continued prosperity for Hong Kong, 22 years after the
former British colony became a free-market enclave in China, un-
der the slogan “one country, two systems”. Instead, the campaign-
ers sound crossest with Hong Kong’s government, for failing to
maintain a strict enough separation from the mainland.
Campaigners have mostly held to that don’t-poke-the-Chinese-
dragon stance during protests that have snarled central Hong Kong
since June 9th. Two of the demonstrations have involved more
than a million people demanding the withdrawal of a bill that
would allow extraditions from the city to mainland China. At
times, the contradictions have been a little dizzying. Some protes-
ters defied baton-swinging police and tear-gas as they denounced
the Hong Kong government—and above all its chief executive Car-
rie Lam—for exposing them to a Chinese justice system in which
they have no confidence. Marchers waved blood-red banners
adorned with images of handcuffs. They yelled obscene Cantonese
insults aimed at Mrs Lam, at police officers and (Chaguan regrets
to report) at the mothers of those officers. Protest signs depicted
Mrs Lam as Gollum, a small and malevolent hobbit. But slogans
targeting Xi Jinping, China’s leader, have been rare.
Over a coffee grabbed between protests, Nathan Law, a leader in
Hong Kong’s democracy movement, concedes that when activists
demand a freely elected, democratic government, they are, logical-
ly, defying Hong Kong’s ultimate rulers in Beijing, who have inter-
preted Hong Kong’s law to require loyalty tests for candidates for
public office. But defying the central leadership is not the activists’
primary objective, he says: “All our demands are directed to the
Hong Kong government.”
These are vertiginous times for campaigners like Mr Law, who
at the age of 25 has already been elected to Hong Kong’s Legislative
Council (only to be expelled for incorrectly reciting his oath of of-
fice) and served jail time for his role in pro-democracy protests in- After Mrs Lam suspended the extradition bill, some foreign
media called her climb-down one of the biggest political setbacks
thatMrXihasfacedinhisyears as China’s leader. It feels very dif-
ferent to protesters, says Mr Law, as chanting comrades walk past.
Activists want Mrs Lam to withdraw the bill entirely. They also
want a committee to investigate heavy-handed policing, and an
agreement not to prosecute marchers accused of assaulting police
officers and other lawbreaking. To date, Mrs Lam has not budged.
“Actually, we haven’t gained anything,” says Mr Law.
He has a message for the central government: that “keeping
Hong Kong as a very vibrant and very competitive city is good for
both of us”. But in the short term he sounds more concerned by lo-
cal opinion, guided by a lesson from the protests of 2014, that “we
have to keep the public onside”. He stresses small acts of restraint
by the leaderless, digitally mobilised movement. He cites a new
tactic of surrounding government offices during the day, rather
than blocking roads first thing, so that civil servants can get to
work but may (he hopes to their delight) be sent home early.
Rank-and-file protesters are also focused on local politics.
Wayne, a 20-year-old student blockading the city’s main tax of-
fices, shrugs when asked about his chances of being heeded by Mr
Xi. “He is a king,” he says. His grievances are with Hong Kong offi-
cials for failing to keep the rest of China at a sufficient distance.
Grumbling about “our money” being taken to build new connec-
tions to the mainland by rail and bridge, Wayne says—inaccurate-
ly—that under one country, two systems, which runs until 2047,
Hong Kong is “not China, not yet”.
Such talk would enrage most mainland Chinese—if strict
censorship were ever to let them hear from Hong Kong’s protesters
directly. It certainly appals central government officials, who play
an ever-more visible role in Hong Kong’s politics.
Regina Ip, a prominent pro-establishment politician in Hong
Kong, says the territory is unhappy. She blames economic mis-
management, including a housing crisis and a failure to seize the
opportunities offered by a rising China. She also blames meddling
by foreign powers. “My own conspiracy theory is there are people
trying to manufacture June 4th crises in Hong Kong,” she says
darkly, referring to the date of the bloody end of the Tiananmen
Square protests in 1989. Mrs Ip credits the central authorities with
wisdom and pragmatism. But she fears that Hong Kong’s “weak-
ened” government will now “lie low”, avoiding contentious bills.Self-interest, yes, enlightenment, no
Western governments face a dilemma. They feel obliged to speak
out on the extradition bill, amid cries of alarm from businesses in
Hong Kong. But when democracy activists petition Western con-
sulates in Hong Kong, as hundreds of them did on June 26th, it
prompts the central government to weigh in, and fuels Chinese
propaganda. The West’s strongest argument is an appeal to en-
lightened self-interest. Western leaders urge Mr Xi to see the harm
that his party’s clumsy actions could do to Hong Kong, a valuable
place. Alas, each year brings more evidence that Mr Xi sees things
the other way round. He worries about what troublesome places
like Hong Kong might do to the Communist Party.
After previous mass protests in Hong Kong, the central govern-
ment staged tactical retreats. It allowed the territory to drop con-
tentious laws, then quietly tightened its grip. The party stepped up
funding for loyalists to run for local office. It leant on businessmen
to support government plans. Tame tycoons bought up media out-
lets. Political veterans expect more such efforts. Hence the pro-de-
mocracy camp’s caution. Its members may fear confronting Mr Xi.
He does not fear confronting them. 7Chaguan What next for Hong Kong?
Whether they admit it or not, protesters in Hong Kong are challenging Xi Jinping’s authority