7.5 Decision making 279
7.5 Decision making
In some ways a decision is like a conclusion: a
judgement that can be supported by giving
reasons. A decision, together with the reasons,
makes up a kind of argument. On other
occasions, however, we find reasons being
given to explain a decision: to say why it is, or
was, the right decision in given circumstances.
It is interesting to note that the reasons for a
decision can be given before or after it has been
made and/or acted upon. A bank manager
looks at a company’s finances and, because
they are in poor shape, concludes – decides –
that it would be unwise to lend the company
any more money. But she could also say, after
having refused the loan, why she refused,
giving exactly the same reason. We can call the
first of these decision making; the second
explanation. Both involve justifying the
decision.
It is also interesting to note that decisions
are not necessarily made on the strength of
reasons. Sometimes we make ‘snap’ decisions,
act on impulse or on the spur of the moment;
or even against better judgement. On
occasions we might look at all the reasons for
and against some course of action, and
convince ourselves that it is better than others,
yet still decide to do the exact opposite. There
is a difference, therefore, between reasoning to
a decision, or making a rational decision, and
just deciding without good reason to do one
thing rather than another.
It is not always wrong, however, to make a
snap decision or to act against better
judgement. It depends on the circumstances.
If nothing hangs on the decision that you
make, then there is no need to spend time
weighing up the pros and cons. Also there are
occasions when there is insufficient time to
reason things through: something has to be
done, and it is better to do something than
nothing, whatever the ‘something’ may be.
Sometimes the rational decision means doing
something that is less fun or less exciting. A
not-very-talented golfer might go for a near-
impossible shot that will probably cost him
the hole, rather than a sensible one which
may result in winning. On the basis that golf
is just a game, and if it is not a serious
competition, the decision to gamble is not
stupid, even though the odds are against its
succeeding.Reasoned decisions: choices and
their consequence
An important part of decision making is
judging what does and does not matter: what
is and is not important. That itself is a critical
judgement, similar to determining the
standard of proof that is needed to justify a
claim (see Chapter 2.2). When outcomes do
matter, and there is time to deliberate, we
want a reliable methodology to maximise the
chances of making the right choice. That
methodology is the topic of this chapter.
The central concepts affecting decision
making are choice and consequence. Obviously,
if we want to reach the best decision, we need
to be aware of what choices are available. You
will remember the fallacy of ‘restricting the
options’ in Chapter 4.7 (page 173). Decision
making is a practical reminder of why
reasoning can be undermined if all the
relevant possibilities are not considered. The
argument that if we cannot do X we must do Y
is valid only if there is no Z that is as feasible as
Y. Although this is a very obvious observation,
it is often overlooked in practice.