BISL 04-Weather and Climate

T

he flutter of a butterfly's wings in

Brazil can unleash a tornado in

Florida.” That was the conclusion

arrived at in 1972 by Edward Lorenz after

dedicating himself to the study of

meteorology and trying to find a way of

predicting meteorological phenomena that

might put the lives of people at

risk. In effect, the atmosphere

is a system so complicated

that many scientists define

it as chaotic. Any forecast

can rapidly deteriorate

because of the wind, the

appearance of a warm

front, or an unexpected

storm. Thus, the

difference continues

to grow

geometrically, and

the reality of the

next day is not the

one that was

expected but

entirely

different: when there should have been sunshine,

there is rain; people who planned to go to the

beach find they have to shut themselves up in the

basement until the hurricane passes. All this

uncertainty causes many people who live in areas

that are besieged by hurricanes or tropical

storms to live in fear of what might happen,

because they feel very vulnerable to changes in

weather. It is also true that natural phenomena,

such as tornadoes, hurricanes, and cyclones, do

not in themselves cause catastrophes. For

example, a hurricane becomes a disaster and

causes considerable damage, deaths, and

economic losses only because it strikes a

populated area or travels over farmland. Yet in

society, the idea persists that natural phenomena

equate to death and destruction. In fact,

experience shows that we have to learn to live

with these phenomena and plan ahead for what

might happen when they occur. In this book,

along with spectacular images, you will find

useful information about the factors that

determine weather and climate, and you will be

able to understand why long-term forecasts are

so complicated. What changes are expected if

global warming continues to increase? Could the

polar ice caps melt and raise sea levels? Could

agricultural regions slowly become deserts? All

this and much more are found in the pages of the

book. We intend to arouse your curiosity about

weather and climate, forces that affect everyone.

A Sum

of Factors

STRONG WINDS AND

TORRENTIAL RAINS

Between September 20 and

September 25, 1998,

Hurricane Georges lashed the

Caribbean, leaving thousands

of people homeless.

“