148 thE sudan handbookcould bring oil revenues down for Sudan. Much of the oil, as we have
seen, is relatively poor in quality, meaning that demand can suffer dispro-
portionately if spare capacity in the market increases. In addition, there is
a danger that rising production costs (driven up, for example, by the need
for more security in the oil fields or expensive ‘enhanced oil recovery’
techniques) could cut into profits. Finally, there are even more serious
risks of a hiatus in oil production as a result of conflict or, ultimately,
lack of new discoveries.
When the oil runs out, Sudan will have to go through yet another
uncomfortable economic transition. The focus of its natural resource
exploitation moved in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries
from gold and slaves to agricultural projects. In the twenty-first century,
a replacement will need to be found to replace oil and the solution is
likely to be more agricultural projects. This would once again render
Sudan vulnerable to risks from poor harvests, drought and falling
international commodity prices. New large-scale agricultural projects,
funded with capital from the Gulf, bring memories of the disasters of
the 1970s. Critical voices in Sudan have portrayed them as a new form
of colonialism. Distributional and human rights concerns are likely to
re-emerge. There is a danger, in short, that the wheel could turn full
circle, with indentured workers filling the roles played by slaves in the
pre-modern era.Recommended Reading
Sidahmed, Abdel Salam and Sidahmed, Alsir. Sudan. London: Routledge,
2005.
Yongo-Bure, Benaiah. The Economic Development of Southern Sudan. Lanham,
MD: University Press of America, 2007.
Patey, Luke. A Complex Reality: The Strategic Behaviour of Multinational Oil
Corporations and the New Wars in Sudan. Copenhagen: DIIS, 2006. IMF, Sudan
and the IMF: Article IV consultations – Staff reports, IMF, http://www.imf.org/
external/country/sdn/index.htm.
The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Monthly Country Reports, http://www.eiu.
com.
The Sudan Handbook, edited by John Ryle, Justin Willis, Suliman Baldo and Jok Madut Jok. © 2011 Rift Valley Institute and contributors
(www.riftvalley.net).