256 thE sudan handbookit a priority to remain on good terms. It went to remarkable extremes not
to break with Sudan: in 1995 when the Sudanese regime was implicated
in an attempt to kill Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak during a visit
to Addis Ababa, many expected an interruption of diplomatic relations
at least. But this did not occur because of Egypt’s deep reluctance to
turn its back on a country that is vital to its survival. In recent years
President Mubarak supported the Sudanese government’s position on
Darfur and used his good relations with the United States to intercede
on behalf of Khartoum. It is likely that future leaders of Egypt will follow
the same pattern. Khartoum’s view of Cairo, likewise, regardless of who
is in power in Sudan, will remain superficially friendly but guarded.
Meanwhile, the long-running dispute over the Hala’ib Triangle on the
Egypt–Sudan border is a continuing source of tension. The Triangle is
now under effective Egyptian occupation, but Sudan continues to lay
claim to it. In reality, though, the Khartoum government has little means
to press its case.
Since the signing of the January 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agree-
ment (CPA) in Nairobi, Egyptian diplomacy towards Sudan has had two
aims. The first has been trying to prevent Southern Sudan’s indepen-
dence. As that aim came to seem increasingly unattainable, Cairo instead
focused on a second strategy: establishing a good relationship with Juba
in advance of secession. In November 2008 President Mubarak flew to
Southern Sudan – the first visit there by an Egyptian head of state since
Gamal Abdel Nasser’s in 1963 – and made generous promises of economic
aid. The issue is particularly pressing as Ethiopia has led a diplomatic
revolt on the part of the upstream riparian states against the 1959 Treaty
on the Nile Waters. This is a treaty that gives Egypt and Sudan the right
to 90 per cent of the flow of the river. Cairo has increased its economic
cooperation with the Provisional Regional Government in Juba. These
attempts at retaining a good relationship with an independent South
Sudan have been welcomed by the Juba authorities. Among the Arab
League, however, they are less popular, being seen as support for the
dismantling of a fellow Arab state.The Sudan Handbook, edited by John Ryle, Justin Willis, Suliman Baldo and Jok Madut Jok. © 2011 Rift Valley Institute and contributors
(www.riftvalley.net).