Editorial Introduction to Volume III
Jules Pretty
Food Systems Overview
Recent advances in aggregate farm productivity have only brought limited reduc-
tions in the incidence of hunger. At the turn of the 21st century, there were nearly
800 million people hungry and lacking adequate access to food, comprising 18 per
cent of all people in developing countries. A third were in East and South-East
Asia, another third in South Asia, a quarter in sub-Saharan Africa, and a twentieth
each in Latin America and the Caribbean, and in North Africa and the Near East.
Nonetheless, there had been progress to celebrate, as the incidence of undernour-
ishment stood at 960 million in 1970, comprising a third of people in developing
countries at the time. Since then, average per capita consumption of food increased
by 17 per cent to 2760 kilocalories per day – good as an average, but still hiding a
great many people surviving on less: 33 countries, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa
still have per capita food consumption under 2200 kcal per day. The challenge
remains huge.
There is also significant food poverty in industrialized countries. In the US,
the largest producer and exporter of food in the world, 11 million people are food
insecure and hungry and a further 23 million are hovering close to the edge of
hunger – their food supply is uncertain but they are not permanently hungry. Of
these, 4 million children are hungry and another 10 million are hungry for at least
one month each year. Despite this progress in food output, it is likely that food-
related ill health will remain widespread for many people. As world population
continues to increase, until at least the mid 21st century, so the absolute demand
for food will also increase. Increasing incomes will also mean people will have
more purchasing power, and this will increase demand for food. But as diets
change, so demand for the types of food will also shift radically, with large num-
bers of people going through the nutrition transition, as first described by Barry
Popkin (The Nutrition Transition: Diet and Diseases in the Developing World,
2002; Academic Press). In particular, increasing urbanization means people are
more likely to adopt new diets, particularly consuming more meat, fats and refined
cereals, and fewer traditional cereals, vegetables and fruit.