204 Poverty and Hunger
Indeed, the World Bank says that billions of people are at risk of serious food inse-
curity and deepening poverty.
Future economic development in the poorest and most biodiversity-rich coun-
tries will depend heavily on agriculture and natural resource management that
continue to enhance productivity and adapt to changing conditions. Agriculture
will remain economically and socially important. Even industrialized countries
cannot reasonably expect to save biodiversity at the expense of agricultural output
and incomes, much less the developing countries of the tropics. Rather, the chal-
lenge is to conserve biodiversity while maintaining or increasing agricultural pro-
duction. Protected areas will remain a critical element of any conservation strategy,
but this book [Ecoagriculture] stresses that it is essential to focus greater conserva-
tion effort on the large areas under agricultural use.
During the 20th century we humans witnessed momentous economic, social
and technological changes. New technologies such as automobiles, airplanes, con-
tainer ships, telephones and computers profoundly affected our way of life, ena-
bling us to escape reliance on local ecosystems and become part of a global economy.
Radio, movies and television transformed the way we related to one another and
to the world. Public health systems and education became much more widespread,
and material wealth – even in the poorest of countries – reached levels inconceiv-
able at the beginning of the century. Our population more than quadrupled, from
1.4 billion in 1900 to more than 6 billion in 2000. As a species, we had a very good
century in many ways.
Our 20th-century prosperity was fuelled in part by a constantly growing sup-
ply of food, enabling us not only to feed a rapidly growing population, but also to
amass food surpluses on a scale never before reached. Based on improved seeds,
widespread use of agricultural chemicals, modern farm machinery and better
transportation systems, agricultural production soared. In the past decade alone,
production of cereal crops increased by 17 per cent, roots and tubers by 13 per cent,
meat by 46 per cent and marine fish by 17 per cent (World Resources Institute,
2002). With such impressive gains on so many fronts, why should we worry about
the 21st century?
First, although more people are consuming more food than ever before, ineq-
uity is increasing as well: some parts of the world suffer from growing overcon-
sumption while others go hungry. The World Bank estimates that some 800
million people remain undernourished, in large part because they cannot access
the food that is produced. That number is likely to grow because the world’s popu-
lation increases by 75–85 million people each year. Some experts suggest that in 30
years we will need at least 50–60 per cent more food than we produce now, in
order to meet global food demand and enjoy at least a modest degree of greater
affluence. If that food is to be accessible to the rural poor, then much of it must be
produced where they live, and in ways that increase both their consumption and
income. Yet food-producing systems throughout the world are already stressed by
eroding soils, declining freshwater reserves, declining fish populations, deforesta-
tion, desertification, natural disasters and global climate change. These and various