13
Past Successes
G. R. Conway
The Japanese have made the dwarfing of wheat an art. The wheat stalk seldom
grows longer than 50 to 60 centimeters. The head is short but heavy. No matter
how much manure is used, the plant will not grow taller; rather the length of
the wheat head is increased. Even on the richest soils, the wheat plants never
fall down.
US adviser to the Meiji government, 1873^1Without the Green Revolution, the numbers of poor and hungry today would be
far greater. Thirty-five years ago, according to FAO, there were about 1 billion
people in the developing countries who did not get enough to eat, equivalent to 50
per cent of the population, compared to the under 20 per cent today.^2 If the pro-
portion had remained unchanged the hungry would be in excess of 2 billion –
more than double the current number. The achievement of the Green Revolution
was to deliver annual increases in food production which more than kept pace
with population growth.
Many factors contributed to this success story, but of central importance was
the application of modern science and technology to the task of getting crops to
yield more. Cereal yields, total cereal production and total food production in the
developing countries all more than doubled between 1960 and 1985. Over the
same period their population grew by about 75 per cent. As a result, the average
daily calorie supply in the developing countries increased by a quarter, from under
2000 calories per person in the early 1960s to about 2500 in the mid-80s, of which
1500 was provided by cereals (Figure 13.1).^3
The history of the Green Revolution is well known, but is worth recounting
here as a reminder of the power and limitations of innovative technology, and the
crucial importance to its success of the economic, social and institutional environ-
ment within which it has to operate.
A careful analysis of the trends in agricultural productivity in a variety of coun-
tries, both developed and developing, suggests there is a point in history when
yields begin to take off.^4 While agricultural production remains based on tradi-
Reprinted from Conway G R. 1997. Past successes. Chapter 4, in The Doubly Green Revolution. Pen-
guin, London, pp44–65.