dangers to a peaceful Europe if the kaiser and
Prussian militarism were to get away with break-
ing treaties and attacking weaker neighbours. The
behaviour of the countries at war made a deep
impression on the US and nothing more so than
Germany’s warfare against defenceless merchant
vessels and even passenger liners. The president
took his stand legalistically on ‘neutral rights’, the
right of Americans to travel the oceans safely and
of American merchant ships to trade with Europe.
Wilson protested at Britain’s conduct of the
blockade and Germany’s ruthless submarine
warfare designed to cut off the British Isles from
the world’s arteries of trade essential to its war
effort. Wilson’s protests were effective. Rather
than risk an American declaration of war, the
German government desisted from attacking
American ships in 1915 and on 1 September also
pledged not to sink any more Allied passenger
liners, which had also led to the loss of American
lives. Meanwhile, the loss of American lives and
the ruthlessness of German warfare had swung the
majority of American opinion in favour of the
Allied cause. But this was sentiment, not action;
the Americans also stood behind their president
in wishing to keep out of the war.
The American people, at the same time, saw
no reason why they should not profit from the
huge increase of trade brought about by the war.
While Germany was just about able to maintain
its trade with the US through neutrals, US trade
with the Allies increased fourfold. By 1916 that
trade was calculated at a staggering $3,214
million, whereas trade with Germany and the
neutrals amounted to a little over $280 million.
The war resulted in a great expansion of American
industry. During the war years Ford developed a
mass market for motor cars and trucks. It was the
beginning of the motor revolution, which
matched in importance the earlier railway revolu-
tion in transport. Free from the burdens of war,
the US developed new technologies and more
efficient methods of industrial manufacture, out-
distancing the European nations more and more.
As the Allies used up their capital to purchase
from the US, America itself replaced Britain as the
principal source of capital to other nations.
American prosperity came to depend on Allied
purchases and, when these could no longer be
met by payment, the prohibition against loans to
the belligerents was relaxed. However, Britain’s
command of the sea prevented the Germans
importing goods directly through their ports
from overseas, though supplies did reach them
through neutral ports. America’s response to
Allied needs meant that its economic strength was
thrown predominantly behind the Allied cause
long before it formally abandoned neutrality.
There was no reason for the US to go to war.
It was still safe from European attack and was
constructing a navy designed to be as powerful as
any in the world to guarantee that safety in the
future. It coveted no more territory. But already
Americans perceived weaknesses in their position.
The growth of Japanese power in Asia, no longer
checked by the Europeans, threatened American
interests in Asia. Even more worrying appeared to
be the prospect of the European conflict ending
in the complete victory of one side or the other.
That would destroy the global balance of power.
Would not the US then be faced with the threat
of a European superpower? American naval war
plans before April 1917 were intended to meet
that danger and not the possibility of joining on
the Allied side. It made sense that Wilson would
attempt to preserve the European balance by
attempting to persuade the belligerents to con-
clude a compromise peace. But all his efforts in
1915 and 1916 failed. They failed for a simple
reason. As long as the Germans occupied Belgium
and northern France they felt themselves at least
partially victorious, but the Allies would contem-
plate no peace unless Germany gave up all its con-
quests. This would have made the sacrifices of
Germany all in vain. In truth, neither side was
ready to conclude a peace that might prove
merely temporary. The only way they could con-
ceive of ensuring a durable peace was through
total defeat of the enemy.
When the first two months of the war did not lead
to the expected decision, France, Britain and
Russia and Germany and Austria-Hungary hoped
to strengthen their position by winning new
allies and opening up new war-fronts to threaten
their enemies. The Germans were the first to be
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