province, but action is limited to threats and
warnings. The possibility that the Chinese will
attack Taiwan has lost credibility. When the US
recognised the People’s Republic as China’s legit-
imate government it did not abandon Taiwan.
The US Congress passed the Taiwan Relations
Act promising to ‘resist’ any resort to force. The
commitment was dramatically tested in the Spring
of 1996. The Taiwanese president, Lee Teng-hui,
elected in 1988 was seeking re-election. He was
a change from the old-style authoritarian leaders,
his aim to move Taiwan out of the time warp, the
pretence that it represented the whole of China
and that the communists on the mainland lacked
all legitimacy their victory in 1949 notwithstand-
ing. He appeared to be on the verge of declaring
Taiwanese independence if re-elected. Beijing
opened a campaign to intimidate the Taiwanese
and frighten them by firing missiles into the
sea. The US countered by moving two aircraft-
carriers into the South China Sea. The message
was clear: the Chinese use of force against Taiwan
would meet armed resistance. The stand-off was
diffused as quickly as it had begun. China backed
off. Following the return of Hong Kong on the
1 July 1997, China has sought to win back
Taiwan on the same basis – ‘one country, two
systems’. However, Taiwan’s 22 million people
could not be won over either by threats or by
blandishments pointing to the continuing pros-
perity of Hong Kong. Per head of population the
Taiwanese were many times more productive than
the Chinese on the mainland and their high stan-
dard of living reflects their economic success.
Politically, too, Taiwan has advanced, allowing a
somewhat disorderly multi-party system.
In July 1999 the earlier crisis was repeated
when Lee tried to bolster his chances of another
electoral victory declaring he no longer accepted
the ‘one China’ ambiguity. A declaration of inde-
pendence would open up the carefully crafted
compromise Washington had devised to paper
over the cracks. Lee did not win, Washington
stood firm. Both sides calmed down.