intertwined and recruits ‘martyrs’ among the Saudi
Arabian youth. Fifteen of the nineteen hijackers
responsible for the atrocities of 9/11 were of
Saudi Arabian descent. The presence of the ‘infi-
dels’, Western businessmen and the US military
on Saudi Arabia’s holy soil has been a prime target
of al-Qaeda, and was demonstrated ruthlessly
again in May 2003 when three compounds hous-
ing Westerners were simultaneously car bombed
with devastating effect, killing and injuring many.
In the new millennium the Saudi Arabian royal
establishment of princes is caught between the
extreme clerics inspiring terrorism, the discon-
tented young without prospect of meaningful
employment, huge debts, declining income, the
US which demands the rooting out of terrorism
and attempts to slow changes to a pace not threat-
ening their feudal rule and privileges. They have
begun to crack down on terrorism and hope they
can hold on with a minimum of concessions.
Egypt is the West’s most important partner in
the Middle East. The fourth election of Hosni
Mubarak in September 1999 to a six-term period
of presidential office has maintained Egypt’s sta-
bility. Parliament is weak, there is a lack of party
tradition essential to the workings of democracy.
Elections in 1995 and 2000 to the parliament
gave overwhelming majorities to the ruling
National Democratic Party, but the opposition
Muslim Brotherhood also secured a few seats
despite interference in the electoral process
which Mubarak publicly deplored. Democracy
has evolved little in the last two decades. Long
periods of office breed corruption in the bureau-
cracy. Mubarak enjoys wide-ranging powers
under the constitution and used them to crack
down hard on Islamic extremists whose most
spectacular atrocity was the killing of tourists vis-
iting Luxor in 1997. That an individual extrem-
ist may succeed in assassinating him, is one of the
facts of life many Arab leaders face. His prede-
cessor Sadat was assassinated and there have been
four attempts on Mubarak’s life. In his mid-
seventies in 2005, Mubarak may have to give way
to a successor in the not too distant future who
will be faced with demands for change.
With a population in the new millennium of
68 million, it has been a struggle to find employ-
ment for new generations entering the job
market. Purchasing Power Parity per head of pop-
ulation was $3,670 in 2000. Mubarak’s economic
liberalisation has benefited industrial development
but Egypt is still dependent on 2 billion dollars
of aid received annually from the US. As a leader
of the Arab world, the continuing Palestine–
Israeli conflict places strain not only on relations
with Israel but also with the US, closely identi-
fied with Israel. Public frustrations find an outlet
in anti-American demonstrations. Nevertheless,
Mubarak has been an anchor of stability in the
volatile region, keeping Arab nationalism in
check.
Jordan is a small kingdom sandwiched in a
volatile region. It lost the most admired of Middle
Eastern leaders, King Hussein in February 1999.
The country he ruled has a parliamentary consti-
tution but was in reality dependent on Hussein’s
initiatives. Urbane, educated in Britain and the
US, after the disastrous war in 1967 when Jordan
lost the West Bank, he became a mediator and
peacemaker. In 1970, ‘Black September’, he
ousted the militant Palestinian Liberation
Organisation (PLO) who threatened to under-
mine the kingdom. Then in 1994 he signed a
peace treaty with Israel and shortly before his
death attempted to broker a peace deal between
the Palestinians and Israelis. Peaceful relations in
the region are essential to the small kingdom of
5 million people, the majority of whom are
Palestinians. Hussein appointed his son Abdullah
to be his successor. With his Palestinian wife,
Abdullah has held to the peace course set by his
father and emphasised the equality of Palestinians
and Jordanians in the kingdom. Jordan has a spe-
cial status in the Middle East as guardian of the
holy Muslim shrines in Jerusalem. This has given
Jordan more weight in diplomacy than would
otherwise be the case. In the new millennium the
two regions were smouldering. Tensions burst
into flame between Iraq and the West and Israel
and the Palestinians. Peace in the Middle East
depends on finding tolerable solutions to both.
Colonel Gaddafi, the most unpredictable
leader of the Middle East, lived up to his reputa-
tion in 2004. He shed his image of supporting
terrorism, agreed to give up weapons of mass
destruction, nuclear and chemical, that he had942 GLOBAL CHANGE: FROM THE 20th TO THE 21st CENTURY