Brazil is the giant among the Latin American
states with a population (179 million) almost five
times as large as Argentina’s (39 million) and
an economy more than three times the size.
President Luis Inàcio Lula da Silva, promising a
new fair deal, was brought to power by the poor.
His left-wing credentials have not made him an
obvious partner of the US which, through the
International Monetary Fund, can exercise finan-
cial muscle to facilitate or obstruct loans. Nor is
Lula da Silva an obvious disciple of IMF remedies
- cutting government deficits, responsible finance
and freeing trade and competition. Nevertheless,
in his first two years of power the president began
to tackle Brazil’s ills; the need to bring down
inflation and to curb profligacy by imposing high
interest rates. Better credit rating and a weaker
currency have boosted Brazil’s exports. None of
this has immediately helped the poor, one in eight
are unemployed. The rewards lie in the future as
the economy resumes growth and investor confi-
dence returns. Inevitably, the president’s popu-
larity plummeted.
Argentina could hardly fall lower than it did in
- President Néstar Kirchner gained popular-
ity in threatening not to repay Argentina’s private
creditors and the IMF at the expense of bank-
rupt Argentineans. But wiser counsels prevailed.
Agreement was reached with the IMF in 2004
and a new loan secured and negotiations contin-
ued with private investors. Fortunately, the
economy grew strongly in 2003 and 2004 and,
with a determined president willing to reform, the
future began to look much brighter.
Chile is the one South American state that is
close to the US. The country continued to be
ruled by the centre-left after the fall of Pinochet
in 1990. Though human rights are secure, demo-
cratic parliamentary rule suffers from the lack of
a credible opposition.
The two most turbulent countries of the
southern hemisphere were Venezuela and Haiti.
President Hugo Chavez’s Bolívarian revolution
resulted in catastrophic strikes and opposition and
a campaign to oust him by democratic means.
From a low base Venezuela’s economy has begun
to recover and Chavez in 2004 convincingly won
a referendum confirming him in the presidency.
In Haiti in 2004 Jean-Bertrand Aristide was
ousted from power by a violent rebellion. A UN
force with US and allied troops restored order,
but the roots of violence and the abject poverty
of the mass of population remain even when the
troops depart.
So what is happening in Latin America? Has
the new century broken the mould of the old? In
one way it appears to have done so, elections and
democracy are the norm; the rise of commodity
prices fuelled by China and the world recovery
have lifted the economies from the abyss. But the
very dependence on commodities makes Latin
America vulnerable to the next downturn. Bust
may follow boom again. The overwhelming
majority of the people live in poverty which pro-
vides no stable foundation for democracy as des-
perate people turn to charismatic leaders who, in
turn, stimulate repression of rights. Latin America
depends on the judgement of private investors
and the willingness of the US to risk the funds of
the International Monetary Fund. The massive
aid needed is not forthcoming. Below the surface
the new century marks more continuity than
change. The real lift-off lies in the future.
No continent’s misery has been greater than that
of Africa or, more accurately, sub-Saharan Africa
which comprises most of the continent and its
people. Somalia has been practically left to fight
out its own warlord wars. Robert Mugabe in
Zimbabwe has made a mockery of democratic rule
and civil rights. Distributing the estates of the
white farmers to some 134,000 black Zimbab-
weans without adequate training has reduced
Zimbabwe from an exporting country to one
dependent on foreign aid to stave off famine. In
acting as he did, encouraging violence against the
white population, he completely reversed the role
he played when first coming to power. Zimbabwe
has been suspended from the Commonwealth, but
enjoys the protection of South Africa’s president,
Thabo Mbeki. Without more aid millions of
Zimbabweans face starvation which may force
Mugabe to moderate or even hand over power.
Brave Zimbabweans who formed the Movement
for Democratic Reform, a dwindling group who
are beaten up and persecuted, continue to chal-
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INTO THE NEW MILLENNIUM 949
