A History of the World From the 20th to the 21st Century

lenge Mugabe. The first treason trial in October
2004 of their leader Morgan Tsuangirai collapsed;
his conviction on flimsy evidence Mugabe proba-
bly had decided would unnecessarily outrage inter-
national opinion and create a martyr; Tsuangirai
faced another trial. Mugabe’s control is so com-
plete that he probably decided the Movement for
Democratic Reform no longer was a threat to him.
Zimbabwe can hardly sink lower, there remains
only the hope that when Mugabe goes, the
stricken country can begin to recover. The vast
Congo is not under the complete control of
Kinshara and rebels hold sway in the east on the
borders of Uganda. War, disease and poverty, by
the end of 2005, will have killed 4 million, half of
them children.
Every year hope is renewed that the Arab
Muslim north of Sudan will reach a settlement
with the rebellion of mainly black Christians and
animists in the south but the conflict has contin-
ued. Peace can come none too soon after forty
years of war and 2 million dead victims. It has
come tantalisingly near with the help of the UN.
In 2004 a new rebellion broke out in western
Sudan in the Darfur province bordering on Libya
and Chad with over one million peasants fleeing
the fighting. Arab militias backed by the govern-
ment burnt their villages, terrified the black
African Sudanese, murdering 50,000. Aid agen-
cies struggle with inadequate resources in the
refugee camps in Chad where thousands have
died from disease and malnutrition while the UN
threatens sanctions, diplomats talk, and no
country wishes to intervene seriously. These are
all major catastrophes against which the casualties
in Iraq pale, but they are in regions less import-
ant to the powerful nations of the world.
Against the wars that persist, the threat of the
devastation wrought by AIDS looms even larger.
In Africa as a whole the infection rate had not
lessened by 2005. More than 25 million are
estimated to be HIV positive. In the worst
affected countries a third of the adults carry HIV
and in Botswana it is nearly 40 per cent. Wars and
migrant labour have spread disease, and poverty
and lack of health care have led to early death,
especially of the young productive population. In
Malawi, for instance, there is only one doctor for

every 50,000 people and only one dollar is allo-

cated for health spending on each person. Clean

water and sanitation are lacking. AIDS is the

biggest threat to Africa’s future; tuberculosis,

malaria and malnutrition still unnecessarily claim

lives. For the past few years President Mbeki has

been in denial about the true cause of AIDS and

drugs have only recently been made available on

a wider scale. In standards of living for the major-

ity of the people Africa has gone backwards. The

last two decades have been catastrophic for much

of the continent. Is, then, everything gloomy?

There is also better news from the continent’s

most populous countries south of the Sahara,

South Africa and Nigeria. As South Africa moves

into the new millennium Thabo Mbeki was

elected in democratic elections to a second term

as president. Who would have forecast that racial

harmony would follow the oppressive decades

of white rule? It is a remarkable achievement,

Mandela’s legacy. Huge challenges remain, reduc-

tion of unemployment and the need for better

educational opportunities and social care to stop

the decline of living standards among the poor.

The white South Africans are largely responsible

for economic growth though a black middle class

is increasing. With the blessings of internal peace

South Africa’s future begins to look brighter.

In Nigeria democratic rule was re-established

and the cultural and ethnic rifts had been con-

tained by President Olusegum Obasanjo, elected

for a second term. The rise in the price of oil has

benefited the economy but not the poor major-

ity. Much needs to be done to root out corrup-

tion and persevere with reforms. Corruption has

blighted Nigeria for decades, the oil riches reach-

ing the few at the expense of the many. Oil too

should have lifted Angola, now at peace, out of

the devastation of decades of civil war, but again

corrupt dealings by the few remain a barrier to

improving standards of living. The West may help

to raise Africa out of the depths with aid, more

importantly by reforming its own farming subsi-

dies, but in the end it will be up to African leaders

and African enterprise to fashion a better future.

During the last decade of the twentieth century

attention in Europe was focused on the wars in

950 GLOBAL CHANGE: FROM THE 20th TO THE 21st CENTURY