ChApter 3 | CHOOSING THE RIGHT BUSINESS | 31by the tracks. How do you deal with the
train when it arrives? You can get on and
ride. You can continue to stand by the
tracks and watch the train disappear in the
distance. Or you can stand in the middle of
the tracks and get run over.
To continue this metaphor, let’s now
assume the economic train has three
engines: taste, trends, and technology.
Together they pull the heavy steel cars
which can give you a comfortable ride or
flatten you. Let’s take a moment to think
more about each of these engines.
Taste
People’s tastes drive many of the changes
our society speeds through. For example,
in the 1970 s, many of us changed our taste
in automobiles from large gas guzzlers
to small, well-built cars. American manu-
facturers didn’t recognize this change in
taste until they almost went broke. The
Japanese were in the right place with small,
reliable cars and realized great prosperity.
Consider popular music as another
example. Music styles change every few
years, and some bright businesspeople
succeed by selling clothing and other
acces sories associated with each new
music style.
What does this mean to you? Look at
your business idea again. How does it fit
with today’s tastes? Is your business idea
part of a six-month fad? Are you going
into something that was more popular five
years ago than it is now and is declining
rapidly? If so, you are likely to go broke no
matter how good a manager you are and
how much you love your business.Trends
It’s one thing to understand that people’s
tastes have changed and will undoubtedly
change again and again, but it’s a lot
harder to accurately predict what will be
popular in a few years. I wish there were
a central source of information about
predicting future trends in any field, but
there isn’t. You have the task of looking
into the future and deciding where it is
going and how that affects what you do
today. Fortunately, a little research can do
wonders. Here are some tips on how to
proceed.
Read everything you can about your
field of interest. Attend trade shows and
talk to people in small businesses at the
cutting edge of the field. Talk to people
in similar businesses. Read back issues of
magazines aimed at your proposed field.
Your goal is to know enough about your
proposed business to spot the trends that
will continue into the next decade. For
example, if you’re interested in opening
a night club from the 195 0s featuring a
piano bar, mixed drinks, and lots of room
for smokers, you should know that the
consumption of hard liquor and cigarettes
has gone down sharply in recent years and
that nonsmoking lounges with wine and
imported beer are doing very well. Putting
this information together with other factors,