The Economist July 10th 2021 35
Asia
AfghanistanafterAmerica
Peace out
W
ere it notfor the Kalashnikov, the
photograph would have been un
remarkable. The framing is offcentre. The
photographer’s shadow can be seen at the
bottom. In the background is the western
gate of MazariSharif, just some 15km
from the centre of Afghanistan’s fourth
biggest city. In the middle is a boredlook
ing man wearing typical local dress and an
orange turban. It is the rifle he holds aloft
in his right hand that gives him away as a
member of the Taliban. That, and the cap
tion that accompanied the picture as it
pinged its way through the mobile phones
of the city’s residents late last month: the
Taliban are at the gates, it warned.
Panic swiftly swept the city. In the days
before, district after district in the sur
rounding province of Balkh had fallen
from government control and into the Tali
ban’s hands. Swathes of northern Afghani
stan have in recent weeks suffered a simi
lar fate. This was all the more alarming giv
en that Balkh has a reputation as a bastion
of antiTaliban resistance. It is a long way
from the insurgents’ southern heart
lands. The sudden appearance of the gun
man seemed an obvious signal that an as
sault was imminent. “On that day, every
thing closed and everyone went to their
homes,” recalls Amir Mohammadi, an 18
yearold schoolboy in the city.
Less than three months after President
Joe Biden declared that the last American
troops would be out of Afghanistan by Sep
tember 11th, the withdrawal is nearly com
plete. The departure from Bagram air base,
an hour’s drive north of the capital, Kabul,
in effect marked the end of America’s 20
year war. But that does not mean the end of
the war in Afghanistan. If anything, it is
only going to get worse.
America and its natoallies have spent
billions of dollars training and equipping
Afghan security forces in the hope that
they would one day be able to stand alone.
Instead, they started buckling even before
America left. Many districts are being tak
en not by force, but are simply handed ov
er. Soldiers and policemen have surren
dered in droves, leaving piles of American
purchased arms and ammunition and
fleets of vehicles. Even as the last Ameri
can troops were leaving Bagram over the
weekend of July 3rd, more than 1,000 Af
ghan soldiers were busy fleeing across the
border into neighbouring Tajikistan as
they sought to escape a Taliban assault.
“Everyone is shocked by how fast it’s fallen
apart,” says a Western diplomat.
On paper, the Afghan army and police
are more numerous and better equipped
than their opponents. In reality they often
yield to much smaller forces. Plummeting
morale is a big reason. Troops complain of
being abandoned by their commanders
and of going without pay, food or ammuni
tion. The American withdrawal has cur
tailed natoair support, which the Afghan
forces had come to rely on. Their own
fledgling air force is a poor substitute.
A running tally by the Foundation for
Defence of Democracies, a thinktank in
Washington, estimates the Taliban control
close to half the country’s 400odd dis
tricts (see map on next page). The govern
ment in Kabul strongly denies this and
says any retreats have been temporary and
will be reversed. Some districts have been
retaken, or have changed hands several
K ABUL AND MAZAR-I-SHARIF
America’s war is over. Afghanistan’s is heating up
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