44 The Economist July 10th 2021
Middle East & Africa
TheIrannucleardealEnriching talks
T
he grand hotel on Vienna’s Ring
strasse, the city’s elegant main boule
vard, is a felicitous spot for nuclear diplo
macy. It is not just the opulent surround
ings or the unlimited coffee. The hotel was
also the headquarters of the International
Atomic Energy Agency (iaea), the world’s
nuclear watchdog, for 22 years until 1979.
Yet the diplomats who have gathered there
for six rounds of talks since April, most re
cently on June 20th, have had little luck so
far. And time may be running short.
America and Iran—indirectly, via Brit
ain, China, France, Germany, Russia and
the European Union—are discussing how
to revive the multinational nuclear deal,
known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of
Action (jcpoa), that was signed in 2015 and
abandoned by President Donald Trump
three years later. In response to American
sanctions, Iran has breached the deal’s pro
visions by testing advanced centrifuges
and accumulating enriched uranium,
among other forbidden steps. The iaeaes
timated in May that Iran had producedover3,000kg of uranium enriched up to 5%
purity (see chart), enough for several
bombs if enriched further. Over 70kg is
now also enriched to over 20%, which is
most of the way to weaponsgrade.
Over the past year America, under Pres
ident Joe Biden, and Iran have each said
that they are willing to return to the terms
of the original deal if the other does so, too.
“We think almost all the agreement docu
ments are ready,” said Iran’s deputy foreign
minister after the latest round. There is “a
new level of optimism”, enthused the eu’s
envoy to the unon June 30th. Russia’s for
eign ministry reckons that a deal may be
done by July 14th, the jcpoa’s sixth anniversary. Yet reinstating the original terms
is not as easy as it sounds, since circum
stances have changed so much in six years.
It does not help that Iran is in the midst
of a political transition. Ebrahim Raisi, a
hardline nationalist, is due to replace Has
san Rouhani, a pragmatist, as Iran’s presi
dent on August 3rd. Mr Raisi and his allies
are more hostile to America and the West
than the current government is. That does
not mean a deal is impossible—it was, after
all, another hardline president, Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad, who began the talks that
eventually led to the jcpoa. But Mr Raisi’s
election does complicate things.
Mr Rouhani’s government has “very lit
tle incentive” to devote its last month in of
fice to frantic diplomacy, says Aniseh Bas
siri Tabrizi of the Royal United Services In
stitute, a British thinktank. Any political
rewards would be distant, since the next
election—for Iran’s parliament—is not due
for three years. Nor is there any guarantee
that the new government will fully imple
ment any deal it inherits, says Mr Tabrizi.
Iran’s domestic politics are not the only
hurdle in the way of an agreement. “We
still have serious differences that have not
been bridged,” warned a senior American
official speaking anonymously to report
ers last month. “Whether it’s the nuclear
steps that Iran needs to take to come back
into compliance, the sanctions relief that
the uswill be offering, or the sequence of
steps that both sides would be taking.”America and Iran want to revive their nuclear deal. An agreement is said to be
close, but there are plenty of obstacles→Alsointhissection
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