Barron's - USA (2021-07-12)

M38 BARRON’S July 12, 2021

Market Laboratory

MONEYRATES

Latest Prev. YrAgo

Week Week

DiscountRate(NY) 0.25 0.25 0.25

PrimeRate(base) 3.25 3.25 3.25

FedFundsRate

Avg effective offer 0.10 0.10 0.09

Avg weekly auction-c 0.10 0.10 0.08

T-BillsRate

13 weeks, CouponYield 0.051 0.051 0.152

13 weeks, Auction Rate 0.050 0.050 0.150

26 weeks, CouponYield 0.051 0.056 0.167

26 weeks, Auction Rate 0.050 0.055 0.165
Avg weekly auction-c 0.05 0.05 0.15

BrokerCallRate 2.00 2.00 2.00

BankersAcceptances

1 month 0.12 0.12 0.13

2 months 0.13 0.13 0.15

3 months 0.15 0.15 0.25

6 months 0.20 0.20 0.30

EuroLiborRate

1 month -0.575 -0.584 -0.495

3 months -0.552 -0.552 -0.438

6 months -0.527 -0.533 -0.360

12 months -0.492 -0.489 -0.282

LiborInterbankRate

1 month 0.10 0.10 0.18

3 months 0.13 0.14 0.27

6 months 0.15 0.16 0.35

12 months 0.24 0.24 0.48

ForeignPrimeRates

Canada 2.45 2.45 2.45

Germany 0.00 0.00 0.00

Japan 1.475 1.475 1.475

Switzerland 0.00 0.00 0.00

Britain 0.10 0.10 0.10

OtherMoneyRates

FannieMae Home Loan:

30-Year FixedConv 2.33 2.41 2.02

Bankmoney market-z 0.07 0.07 0.12

InterestChecking-z 0.03 0.03 0.05

6-MonthCertif-z 0.12 0.12 0.23

12-MonthCertif-z 0.17 0.17 0.38
30 Month Accounts-z 0.17 0.17 0.34

5-Year Certificates-z 0.31 0.31 0.55

U.S.Savings EE Bonds:

Long-Term (5yrs+) 0.10 0.10 0.10

c-Annualizedyields,adjustedforconstantmaturity,reportedby

theFederalReserveonaweeklyaveragebasis.
Sources:TullettPreboninformation,Ltd.
Factset.z-Bankrate.com.

0.65

0.59

0.53

0.47

0.41

0.3 5

5.65

4.60

3.55

2.50

1.45

0.40

S&P 100 CBOE

J A S O N D J F M A M J J

CBOE PUT/CALL RATIO vs S&P 100

Source:CBOE

Readings in the CBOE equity put-call ratio of 60:100

and in the S&P 100 of 125:100 are considered bullish,

for instance. Bearish signals flash when the equity

put-call level reaches the vicinity of 30:100 and the

index ratio hits 75:100.

S&P 100

CBOE s

s

FOREIGNEXCHANGE

FEDERALRESERVEDATABANK

Prev. Year

MemberBank Latest Week Ago

ReserveChgs.(Mil.$) Week Change Change

OneweekendedJul7:

U.S.Gov'tsecurities:

Boughtoutright 7,512,568 + 9,829 +1,378,094

Federalagencysecur:

Boughtoutright 2,347 .... ....

Reservebankcredit:

Primary Credit 391 -69 -4,928

Secondary Credit .... .... ....

SeasonalCredit 20 .... + 1

Float -123 + 200 + 85

OtherF.R.Assets 35,978 + 688 + 400

TotalFedCredit# 8,047,806 + 8,317 +1,132,521

Goldstock 11,041 .... ....

SDRCertif.Accounts 5,200 .... ....

Treas.Curr.Outst. 50,726 + 14 + 461

Total 8,135,974 + 8,224 +1,133,281

Currencyincirc 2,186,896 + 6,260 + 212,206

Treas.CashHldgs 42 .... -19

Treas.FedDeposits 753,364 + 7,402 -899,734

ForeignFedDeposits 5,263 -1,509 -11,856

OtherFedDeposits 221,014 -22,142 + 66,823

OtherFRliab/cap 50,297 + 1,213 + 2,845

Totalfactors 4,265,405 -81,554 + 76,678

ReservesF.R.banks 3,870,568 + 89,777 +1,056,601

FgnholdU.S.debt 3,528,385 + 5,803 + 125,707

ReserveAggr(Mil.$) Latest Prev.Month% Year

MonthEnded May: Month Month Chg. Ago

TotalReserves: 3,872,400 3,887,300 -0.38 3,217,600

Nonborrowed Res 3,791,600 3,820,500 -0.76 3,105,800

Borrowed Reserves 80,782 66,805 20.92 111,845

MonetaryBase 6,041,900 6,042,100 -0.00 5,149,400

SouthKorea (Won) .0008731 .0008844 1145.33 1130.77

SriLanka (Rupee) .0050 .0050 199.1600 199.4500

Sweden (Krona) .1167 .1174 8.5676 8.5191

Switzerland (Franc) 1.0942 1.0860 .9139 .9208

Taiwan (Dollar) .03576 .03583 27.965 27.910

Thailand (Baht) .03073 .03111 32.540 32.140

Turkey (New Lira)-d .1155 .1151 8.6600 8.6895

Ukraine (Hryvnia) .0367 .0364 27.2500 27.4500

U.K. (Pound) 1.3904 1.3830 .7192 .7231

Uruguay (Peso) ........ ........ ...... .. ...... ..

Financial .02271 .02289 44.040 43.685

----

Euro 1.1878 1.1865 .8419 .8429

SpecialDrawingRights(SDR)arebasedonexchangeratesfortheU.S.,

British,andJapanesecurrencies.Source:InternationalMonetaryFund.

a-RussianCentralBankrate.b-governmentrate.d-rebasedasofJan.1,

2005.y-floatingrate.

Friday,July09,2021

TheNewYorkforeignexchangemid-rangeratesarequotedat5

p.m. Eastern time by Tullett Prebon. Retail transactions pro-

vide fewer units of foreign currency per dollar.

Foreign Foreign U.S.$in U.S.$in

Currency Currency Foreign Foreign

inU.S.$ inU.S.$ Currency Currency

Country Fri. LastFri. Fri. LastFri.

Argentina (Peso)-y .0104 .0104 95.9585 95.7920

Australia (Dollar) .7488 .7528 1.3355 1.3284

Bahrain (Dinar) 2.6525 2.6523 .3770 .3770

Brazil (Real) .1901 .1977 5.2598 5.0586

Bulgaria (Lev) .6066 .6065 1.6485 1.6489

Canada (Dollar) .8034 .8113 1.2447 1.2326

Chile (Peso) .001336 .001359 748.75 735.65

China (Renminbi) .1543 .1545 6.4789 6.4730

Colombia (Peso) .0002610 .0002672 3831.00 3742.00

Croatia (Kuna) .1584836 .1584209 6.31 6.31

Czech.Rep. (Koruna) ...... .. ........ ...... .. ...... ..

Commercialrate .04613 .04640 21.677 21.550

Denmark (Krone) .1597 .1596 6.2612 6.2674

Ecuador US Dollar 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000

Egypt (Pound)-y .0637 .0638 15.6935 15.6677

HongKong (Dollar) .1287 .1288 7.7671 7.7666

Hungary (Forint) .003341 .003374 299.33 296.41

Iceland (Krona) .008118 .008066 123.18 123.98

India (Rupee) .01343 .01343 74.487 74.482

Indonesia (Rupiah) .0000688 .0000688 14528 14533

Israel (Shekel) .3049 .3058 3.2797 3.2703

Japan (Yen) .009081 .009008 110.12 111.02

Kazakhstan (Tenge) .002331 .002343 429.05 426.81

Kuwait (Dinar) 3.3227 3.3187 .3010 .3013

Macau (Pataca) .1249 .1250 8.0040 8.0020

Malaysia (Ringgit)-b .2386 .2402 4.1905 4.1635

Mexico (Peso) ...... .. ........ ...... .. ...... ..

Floating rate .0503 .0506 19.8726 19.7723

NewZealand (Dollar) .6997 .7031 1.4292 1.4223

Norway (Krone) .1153 .1163 8.6749 8.5959

Oman (Rial) 2.5971 2.5972 .3850 .3850

Pakistan (Rupee) .00627 .00634 159.450 157.749

Philippines (Peso) .01998 .02031 50.039 49.228

Poland (Zloty) .2612 .2631 3.8282 3.8012

Qatar (Rial) .2706 .2703 3.6952 3.6989

Russia (Ruble)-a .01344 .01366 74.416 73.196

SaudiArabia (Riyal) .2666 .2666 3.7508 3.7506

Singapore (Dollar) .7402 .7424 1.3509 1.3469

SouthAfrica (Rand) .0705 .0702 14.1935 14.2511

GOLD&SILVERPRICES

Year

Handy&Harman 7/9 7/2 Ago

Gold,troyounce 1806.00 1786.15 1803.10

Silver,troyounce 26.14 26.42 18.71

Baseforpricinggoldandsilvercontentsofshipmentsandfor

makingrefiningsettlement.

Price Premium Premium

Coins $ %

Krugerrand 1883.13 72.43 4.00

MapleLeaf 1901.24 90.54 5.00

MexicanPeso 2191.16 8.00 0.37

AustriaCrown 1777.85 3.00 0.17

AustriaPhil 1901.24 90.54 5.00

U.S.Eagles 1901.24 90.54 5.00

Premiumistheamountoverthevalueofthegoldcontentinthe

coin.SourceManfra,Tordella&Brookes,Inc.

Bullionspotgoldprice 1810.70

BARRON'SGOLDMININGINDEX

12-Month Year Week%

High Low 7/8 7/1 Ago Chg.

1147.72771.61 Gold mining 964.40 1003.03780.04 –3.85

INVESTORSENTIMENTREADINGS

High bullish readings in the Consensus stock index or in the

Market Vane stock index usually are signs of Market tops; low

ones, market bottoms.

Last 2Weeks 3Weeks

Week Ago Ago

ConsensusIndex

ConsensusBullish Sentiment 66% 65% 64%

Source:ConsensusInc.,P.O.Box520526,Independence,Mo.

Historicaldataavailableat(816)[email protected]

AAIIIndex

Bullish 40.2% 48.6% 40.4%

Bearish 24.5 22.2 23.3

Neutral 35.3 29.2 36.3

Source:AmericanAssociationofIndividualInvestors,

625N.MichiganAve.,Chicago,Ill.60611(312)280-0170.

MarketVane

Bullish Consensus 66% 64% 61%

Source:MarketVane,P.O.Box90490,

Pasadena,CA91109(626)395-7436.

TIMGroupMarketSentiment

Indicator 39.6% 42.3% 44.6%

Source:TIMGroup,3ColumbusCircle,Suite1592

NewYork,NY10019(844)[email protected]

Last Prev. YrAgo

Week Week Week

WEEKLYBONDSTATISTICS

Last Prev. YrAgo

Week Week Week

NewOfferings,(mil$)(v)

Corporate (z) 11,500 18,184 36,584

Municipal(z) 1,328 r8,704 12,124

BestGradeBonds-y(Barron'sindex of10 high-grade

corporatebonds.)

1.48 1.47 1.72

Interm-GradeBonds-y(Barron'sindex of10

medium-gradecorporatebonds.)

2.38 2.48 3.48

ConfidenceIndex(High-grade index divided by inter-

mediate-grade index; declineinlatter vs.former generally

indicates risingconfidence, pointingtohigher stocks.)

62.1 59.3 49.4

OtherConfidenceIndicators:

BloombergBarclaysUSLongTreasury*(This

index measures theperformance offixed-rate, nominalUS

Treasuries withat least10 years tomaturity. Jan. 1, 1973=100.)

4414.95 4362.96 4946.60

BloombergBarclaysUSCredit(Thisindex

includesall publicly issued,fixed-rate, non-convertible, invest-

ment-grade, dollar-denominated, SEC-registeredcorporate

debt.All issues haveat leastone year tomaturity and outstand-

ingpar value of atleast$250 million. Jan.1, 1973=0.)(v)

3373.62 3339.88 3287.39

RyanLabsTreasuryIndex(Indexoftotal returnfrom

activeTreasury notesand bonds.Dec. 31, 1996=100.)

321.78 317.06 337.45

BondBuyer20BondIndex(Indexofyields of20

general obligationmunicipal bonds.)

2.04 2.14 2.19

BondBuyerMunicipalBondIndex(Indexof 40

actively-traded tax-exempt bonds;component issues are

changedregularly tokeep theindex a currentpicture of the

market. Source: TheBond Buyer

3.36 3.41 3.61

Stock/BondYieldGap-s(Difference betweenyield on

highest-gradecorporate bondsand yield on stockson the DJIA.)

+.25 +.26 +.64

YieldonDJEqualWeightUSCorpBondIdx:

CorpBonds, (y) 2.15 2.25 2.22

v-WeekendedThursday.y-Yieldtomaturity,weekendedThursday.

z-Source:Refinitiv.*BarclaysT-BondIndexdiscontinuedbyfirm.

Foreign Foreign U.S.$in U.S.$in

Currency Currency Foreign Foreign

inU.S.$ inU.S.$ Currency Currency

Country Fri. LastFri. Fri. LastFri.

ADJUSTABLEMORTGAGEBASERATES

YOY

Jul9 Jul2 Yr.Ago %Chg

1YearTreasBills 0.08 0.09 0.16 -50.00

2YearTreasNotes 0.25 0.26 0.16 56.25

3YearTreasNotes 0.46 0.47 0.19 142.11

5YearTreasNotes 0.88 0.90 0.29 203.45

10YearTreasNotes 1.47 1.50 0.67 119.40

20YearTreasBds 2.01 2.05 1.19 68.91

11thDistrict%May 0.306 0.306 0.755 -59.47

FHFAPMMS+ 3.12 3.12 3.32 -6.02

Fedannualizedyieldsadjustedforconstantmaturity.

GOLD PERFORMANCE

-20

0

20

40

60

A S O N D J F M A M JJ

Barron's Gold Mining Index (964.40)

s

Handy & Harman Gold Prices

Red and Gold: Bond yields slipped.

Stocks wavered. Gold’s price edged up

1.1% for the week, to $1,806 an ounce.

ARMSINDEX

TheArmsindex,alsoknownastheshorttermtradingindex,isanumber

derivedbydividingonequotientintoanotherquotient.Thenumeratorin

the index is the number of advancing stocks divided by the number of

declining stocks. As of 3/14/11, the denominator in the index is now the

compositevolumeofadvancingstocksdividedbythecompositevolumeof

decliningstocks.

Daily 7/5 7/6 7/7 7/8 7/9

NYSE ... 2.15 1.77 1.15 .55

NYSEAmerican ... 1.43 3.73 1.15 .69

Nasdaq ... .51 .71 .73 .92