32 The Americas The Economist July 17th 2021
I
t is aquestion that might have been
devised by Cantinflas, a comic actor
who turned the Mexican taste for cir
cumlocution into an absurdist art form.
“Are you in agreement or not that appro
priate actions in accordance with the
constitutional and legal framework be
carried out in order to undertake actions
of clarification of political decisions
taken in the past by political actors,
aimed at guaranteeing justice and the
rights of the possible victims?” This is
what President Andrés Manuel López
Obrador wants Mexicans to decide in a
national referendum on August 1st.
Decoded, what it means is, should he be
authorised to orchestrate a kind of un
official show trial of his five most recent
predecessors and their subordinates?
Mr López Obrador (or amlo, for
short), has always insisted that he be
came president in order to draw a line
under 30 years of what he calls “neoliber
al”, corrupt government. He holds those
five presidents responsible, variously, for
corruption, the concentration of wealth,
electoral fraud and a failed drug war that
begot yet more violence. Shortly after his
landslide victory in 2018 he began to talk
about holding a referendum over wheth
er to put the expresidents on trial.
To resort to a popular vote to decide
whether or not to prosecute someone is a
travesty of the rule of law. The Supreme
Court, whose president boasts of an
“affectionate” relationship with amlo,
narrowly ruled that the referendum was
constitutional but softened the question
to its current convoluted form. What
makes the exercise even more surreal is
that the president says he won’t vote,
because he is not “vengeful” and doesn’t
want to dwell on the past. If “the people”
decide otherwise, however, he will act on
their wishes.
This referendum serves several of the
president’s purposes. He is fond of consul
tative votes. They support his claim to take
more notice of the people than his prede
cessors did. He has used them to provide
backing for decisions he wanted to take
anyway, such as the cancellation of a
halfbuilt new airport in Mexico City.
This one will have binding force if 40%
of the electorate take part and a majority
votes in favour. If that happens, some
think the government will set up a kind of
truth commission into the recent past. But
turnout may fall short. The opposition is
boycotting the vote. The independent
electoral authority, which complains that
the government is starving it of funds,
says it will install only a third of the num
ber of polling stations it used in a mid
term election last month.
The vote also confirms that, in fighting
corruption, amloprefers theatre, which
he can direct, over substance. Mexicans
are fed up with graft; the government of
Enrique Peña Nieto of 201218 was notori
ously corrupt. amlomade ending corrup
tion a central plank of his campaign.
Nevertheless, “corruption in Mexico is in
robust good health,” says María Amparo
Casar of Mexicans Against Corruption
and Impunity (mcci), a watchdog. “There
is talk against corruption but there is no
anticorruption policy.”
Rather, there has been regression.
Although public contracts are supposed
to be tendered, as Mr López Obrador
promised to do, his government has
awarded them by fiat in 81% of cases,
more than the 79% under Mr Peña Nieto,
according to Ms Casar. The office of the
special prosecutor for corruption cases
has had its funding and staffing cut. The
fight against corruption has become a
political tool. Last year Spain extradited
Emilio Lozoya, a former head of Pemex,
the state oil company, who is wanted for
taking bribes from Odebrecht, a Brazilian
construction firm. He has not been jailed
and has become a protected witness,
incriminating enemies of the govern
ment. amlohounds anticorruption
campaigners: he has criticised mcci
dozens of times in his morning press
conferences, and the tax authorities have
subjected it to punitive audits.
The president claimed victory in last
month’s election because his party
gained ten state governorships. But it
lost its majority in the lower house of
Congress (it can still eke one out with
allies) and suffered a humiliating defeat
in Mexico City. Though he remains pop
ular, Mr López Obrador is no longer
invincible. Many Mexicans continue to
think he is on their side. But they are
suffering from the pandemic, the gov
ernment’s mishandling of it and the
related economic slump, as well as un
abated violent crime. To distract atten
tion from policy failures, their president
needs all the Cantinflan spectacles of
political theatre that he can muster.
A battle against corruption with more theatre than substance
BelloA Mexican show trial?
parts of the country. It is trying to help
them deal with kidnappings, which by one
estimate rose by 50% in the first three
months of this year.
The legacy of uninterventions in Haiti
is mixed. In the 1990s the unsent four mis
sions to the country, all of which by its own
admission failed to achieve their goals. Be
tween 2004 and 2017 it returned, providing
some stability after the ousting of Mr Aris
tide. But when the blue helmets withdrew,
they were lambasted for having inadver
tently introduced cholera, starting an out
break that killed 10,000 Haitians. Other
ngoworkers were accused of sexually as
saulting children and women.
Aid has undoubtedly given Haiti a boost
in some areas. ngos have helped build
schools, hospitals and sewers. But their
proliferation and vast budgets have re
duced incentives for Haiti to develop its
own institutions. The sheer volume of
charitable cash has tempted corrupt big
wigs. Indeed, one source of anger against
Mr Moïse was his alleged pilfering of mon
ey from PetroCaribe, a cheap Venezue
lan oil scheme.
Many Haitians would welcome some
foreign help to restore a semblance of se
curity. More support could be given to
counter gangs. On July 11th a delegation of
American officials, including from the Na
tional Security Council, met the three men
who claim to be in charge. But activists and
intellectuals are adamant they do not want
outside powers to back the same old, dis
credited political faces or to push Haiti in
to elections planned for September, for
which the country is unlikely to be ready.
Fritz Jean, a former prime minister,speaks
for many when he says, “It istimetolisten
to the voices of Haitian people.”n