The Economist July 17th 2021 Asia 35start, only 21% of the population is fully in
oculated. Rates are much higher among
the elderly (some 75% of Tokyoites over the
age of 65 have received at least one jab),
leading to a decrease in deaths and seri
ously ill patients in the capital. Nonethe
less, Tokyo recorded 1,149 new cases on July
14th, the highest tally since January. The
spread of the more infectious Delta variant
worries medical experts. Christian Tagsold
of the University of Düsseldorf quips that
the circumstances of these Olympics bring
to mind “Akira”, a cult Japanese manga and
anime from the 1980s that depicts a post
apocalyptic “Neo Tokyo” hosting the Olym
pic games in 2020.
Organisers admit that it will be impos
sible to control the virus completely. A
handful of athletes and officials arriving
early have already tested positive. The au
thorities hope instead to avoid an Olym
pian outbreak. That will require compli
ance not just from athletes, but from
53,000 officials, staff and press who are ex
pected to attend. They will be bound by a
“written pledge”, but face less drastic pen
alties for misbehaving than the athletes,
who risk disqualification. Many worrythey will be less ruleabiding than the
Japanese public, which has tended to heed
the government’s requests.
Those fears were amplified this week
when four foreigners working for a sub
contractor at a venue were arrested on sus
picion of cocaine use in a nightlife district
far from the Olympic facilities. Pandemic
or not, the Olympics will be a temptation
for some to party. That may be one reason
why the organisers backtracked on plans to
hand out condoms in the village thisyear.
Instead, the athletes will receive theirpro
phylactics only when they leave Japan.nS
ince winningthe presidency in a
landslide nearly two years ago, Gota
baya Rajapaksa has worried not that he
has too many relatives in government,
but that he has too few. One of the 72
yearold’s elder brothers, Mahinda,
himself president for ten years until a
surprise election defeat in 2015, is prime
minister. Another, Chamal, is minister
for irrigation. Chamal’s son, Shasheen
dra, is minister of state for “paddy and
grains, organic food, vegetables, fruits,
chillies, onions and potatoes, seed pro
duction and hightech agriculture”.
Mahinda’s son, Namal, is minister for
youth and sports. And state minister for
digital technology and enterprise devel
opment. And everything else, to judge by
his hyperactive Twitter feed.
But there is always room for one more
Rajapaksa, 69yearold Basil above all.
“Gota” and Mahinda acknowledge him as
the brains and organiserinchief of the
family. He devised the electoral strategy
behind its return to power, founding a
new party, the Sri Lanka Podujana Pera
muna (slpp), which used digital wizardry
to rally chauvinists from the ethnic
majority, the Sinhalese—all while in
prison on a corruption charge stemming
from his time as economy minister (his
detractors called him “Mr 10%”). On July
8th he was back in the cabinet.
Basil’s return to government required
both a constitutional amendment to
allow dual nationals to hold senior gov
ernment positions (he has an American
passport) and the resignation of a docile
member of Parliament to free a seat for
him. He faces a budget and current
account mess caused by poor policy
under Gota and Mahinda, from whom he
inherits the finance portfolio, and exac
erbated by the pandemic.
On coming to power, his older brothers slashed taxes as a stimulus. Tax re
ceipts fell by a quarter and the budget
deficit climbed to 14% of gdp. Twothirds
of government revenue now goes on
interest payments. A downgrade by credit
rating agencies late last year shut Sri Lan
ka off from international capital markets.
The Sri Lankan rupee is sliding. Foreign
debt is being serviced from the central
bank’s reserves. These, warns Deshal de
Mel of Verité Research, a thinktank in
Colombo, the capital, are now down to less
than three months’ worth of imports.
Default is becoming more likely.
The obvious solution is to apply to the
imffor an assistance programme to help
restore confidence among external credi
tors. Such a move would not sit easily with
Gota’s talk of “prosperity and splendour”,
however. An easier first step will be to seek
more help and forbearance from a major
creditor, China. The central bank recently
minted gold coins to celebrate the Chinese
Communist Party’s 100th birthday.
In following their next moves, how
ever, never fail to bear in mind what is in it
for the Rajapaksas themselves. The nextparliamentary and presidential elections
are a way off. Basil presumably calculates
that economic recovery by then will
return them to power. But there are
complications.
One has to do with Mahinda, who is
rumoured to be suffering from ill health.
Basil is his obvious replacement as prime
minister. Yet it is from Mahinda’s folksy
charisma that the family’s aura derives.
When he goes, so does a big part of the
Rajapaksa appeal.
The obvious family response would
be to tighten its hold on power yet fur
ther. The tendencies are there. Gota, who
as defence secretary prosecuted the end
of Sri Lanka’s brutal civil war in 2009,
retains the defence and intelligence
portfolios. By temperament a martinet,
he has stuffed his administration with
ex and current brass. During Mahinda’s
presidency the security services were
allpowerful, and critics were intimidat
ed and on occasion wound up dead.
The complication here is getting Sri
Lankans to play along. These days, Gota’s
irascibility inspires more scorn than fear.
Farmers decry Gota’s illconsidered push
for organic farming free of imported
fertiliser. Others call for justice for the
civil war’s victims. Activists who recently
took to the streets against the expansion
of a militarybacked university that is
exempt from national oversight were
bundled away for supposedly breaking
coronavirus restrictions and given 14
days’ enforced quarantine. In response,
the country’s teachers have gone on
strike. Even slppmembers grumble that
the Rajapaksa tribe is taking too much
power, leaving too little for the hangers
on. Sri Lankans have a history of hoofing
overweening governments out. That
makes the Rajapaksas’ suffocating hold
on power look like a weakness. Sri Lanka’s ruling dynasty is not as secure as it appearsBanyan Rajapaksa raj