The Economist July 17th 2021 China 39Turninginward
I
t is becomingclear that China will not, or perhaps cannot, re
open its borders soon. The reasons are many. Chinese leaders
have declared that zero tolerance of covid19 is a mark of good gov
ernment. Officials are fired if cases are found on their patch, so
they lock down whole cities to crush even tiny outbreaks. Ordin
ary Chinese associate the virus with fear and stigma, knowing that
a single infected person may force thousands of neighbours, col
leagues or classmates into quarantine.
The outside world stands for chaos. Propaganda outlets stress
that new cases involve arrivals from abroad. State media describe
foreigners, notably Americans, as too selfish, sciencescorning
and obsessed with individual rights to control the virus. Images of
maskless Westerners on crowded beaches or rampaging at anti
lockdown protests are a staple of Chinese news coverage. Lots of
Chinese are cross about a lack of overseas praise for their country’s
strict approach. Their resentment is both sincere and stoked by
propaganda that accuses American leaders of slandering China to
cover up their cruel incompetence and 600,000 pandemic deaths.
Finally, though open discussion of this question is taboo, the
authorities are being oddly secretive about how well Chinese
made vaccines work. Locally made jabs have been given to two
fifths of the population, with assurances that they are highly effec
tive. But few data have been released about how Chinese vaccines
cope with variants, or how long they work. This opacity is a pro
blem. Many developing countries have relied heavily on Chinese
shots. Indonesia and Thailand are among those now planning
booster jabs with Western vaccines, at least for medical workers.
Chinese officials grumble that America and the European Un
ion have yet to approve a vaccine from China. But in May, eureg
ulators trying to inspect a vaccine production site near Beijing
were stymied by Chinese officials who insisted that those busy
scientists would have to spend three weeks in quarantine. The
government rejected an offer for them to fly in by charter plane for
a brief inspection visit in protective suits.
Meanwhile, mainland China has yet to approve any foreign
vaccines, including the most effective ones that use mrnagene
technology. Perhaps China wants to protect domestic drugmakers
from competition, suggest foreign diplomats. Equally, China maywanttobuytime for a locally made mrnavaccine that is known to
be in development. Given all these factors, it is not obvious how
China will start to reopen, especially before some big events have
safely passed. These include the Winter Olympics that Beijing will
host next February and a Communist Party congress in late 2022,
at which Xi Jinping is set to seek a fresh term as supreme leader.
For their part, foreigners who live in mainland China appreci
ate being in a country that has the virus under control: in spring
2020 hundreds of millions of Chinese spent weeks at home to
break the chain of transmission, often without pay. But quite a few
have also had enough. Surveys by the American and European
chambers of commerce suggested the number of foreign residents
in China had fallen by 30% in 18 months. International schools are
braced for a fresh exodus this summer, it is said, including of
teachers who have not seen families outside China for more than a
year. This spring several embassies debated whether China should
become a hardship posting reserved for diplomats without depen
dents. Their concerns include rules obliging all international ar
rivals, including children, to quarantine in a hotel for three weeks,
and to enter an isolation clinic if they test positive. (Ambassadors
may quarantine at home for 21 days, but only if their residence is a
detached house and they are driven there with a police escort.)
In June Spain’s consulategeneral in Shanghai protested after a
newly arrived Spanish citizen was made to sign documents that
she could not read and undergo days of tests and mriscans in a
clinic. The Spaniard had apparently tested positive for antibodies,
either as a result of having been vaccinated or after recovering
from a bout of covid19. Chinese officials declined to explain.
Foreign companies in favoured sectors can secure visas for ex
ecutives, or for engineers who are needed to build advanced
manufacturing sites that China wants. But even the largest such
businesses struggle to obtain visas for the families of their expa
triate staff. As many as half a million foreign students at Chinese
institutions are stuck outside the country: their visas were can
celled in March 2020. Let them study online, Chinese officials tell
diplomats who mention their plight. International tourism, both
inbound and outbound, has ground to a halt.
China now issues a few visas for temporary business and fam
ily visits. But any further opening provokes nervousness. The
southern province of Guangdong, hit by a recent virus outbreak, is
building a quarantine clinic for international arrivals with 5,000
beds. Those foreign airlines allowed to operate limited flights into
China are often running at 10% of prepandemic capacity. Visits by
political leaders from abroad have largely ceased. Some foreign
ministers have been admitted to China to meet their counterpart,
Wang Yi, but only in provincial cities. Beijing, where top leaders
live, is off limits. Mr Xi attends overseas summits by videolink.China wants foreign know-how and respect, not foreigners
Chinese history has seen many cycles of opening and turning in
ward. Anecdote by anecdote, evidence is mounting that foreign
ers, whether suspected of bearing dangerous germs or ideas, are
becoming less welcome. On a recent domestic flight, Chaguan’s
neighbour pointedly asked to move seats. It is growing more com
mon to face demands from members of the public to agree that
China is strong and the West failing. Nationalism and impatience
with foreign criticism were on the rise before covid19. The pan
demic has sped up those trends—as it has inspiredattimes nasty
antiChinese racism abroad. Mutual distrust willbehard to over
come until China reopens. That may take a while.nChaguan
Covid-19 fears are combining with rising nationalism to keep China closed