TheEconomistJuly17th 2021 MiddleEast&Africa 43BOTSWANAZIMBABWEESWATINILESOTHONAMIBIACapeTownMOZAMBIQUEINDIANOCEANGautengKwaZulu-Natal
SOUTHAFRICAPretoriaN highwayJohannesburgSowetoDurban
Sapref oil
refineryPietermaritzburg400 kmlooking into allegationsthatThulaniDlo
mo, a Zumaera spy bossandformeram
bassador, was one of theinstigators.
Some 25,000 troops willsoonbede
ployed, said the defenceministeronJuly
14th. They are needed.Inkzn, MrZuma’s
stronghold, the violencewasstillunabated
as The Economistwenttopress.Policewere
conspicuous by their absenceatthesitesof
some of the worst criminality.The first
state of emergency sincetheapartheidera
is being considered, accordingtogovern
ment ministers. Severalbusinessgroups
are pleading for it.
As is often the case,SouthAfricanslet
down by the state aretakingmattersinto
their own hands. In partsofkzn,armed
neighbourhood groupsarecontrollingen
try to and exit from theirareas.Thecoun
try’s many privatesecurityfirms, which
between them have morethanthreetimes
as many guards as therearepoliceofficers,
are patrolling suburbsanddefendingbusi
nesses. In Johannesburgtownships,such
as Alexandra and Soweto, community
groups are banding together to protect
malls and sweep up thebrokenglass.
Recovery will takeyears.SomeSouth
African business owners, teeteringafter
years of slow growth,willgiveuporgo
overseas. Some foreigninvestorswilllook
at the chaos, see every bad stereotype
about South Africa confirmed, and put
their money elsewhere.Alreadystrained
public finances will behitbythecostofre
building infrastructure and of payouts
from a state insurer usedbyfirmstocover
against riots. Even aftertrashed,burned
buildings have been repaired,thedamage
to the social fabric mayproveenduring.
Mr Ramaphosa hasdefinedhispresi
dency as the oppositeofMrZuma’s.Inhis
speech on July 12th hetoldthecountry:
“This is not who we areasSouthAfricans.
This is not us.” He pledgedto“restorecalm
and order”. But if his governmentdoesnot
do so soon, it will cementthemalignlega
cy of his predecessorandemphasisehis
own weakness. Mr Zumamaynolongerbe
in charge. But is anyone?n
SudanUnlikely bedfellows
A
stalwart ofthe previous regime, now
in charge of dismantling it. A camel
rustler turned warlord, now ensconced in a
palatial home. And an avuncular econo
mist, who once was a communist.
These are unlikely bedfellows. Yet they
are entrusted with the task of building de
mocracy in Sudan. Barely two years after a
ruthless Islamist despot, Omar alBashir,
was deposed, they are supposed to be shep
herding the country towards elections in2024. “We call it the Sudan model,” smiles
Abdalla Hamdok, the economist (below
left). He is the prime minister appointed by
protest leaders in 2019. “A model of part
nership between civilians and the military,
paradoxically, to bring democracy.”
That model emerged from a power
sharing pact struck in 2019 between lead
ers of the protesters, who had first taken to
the streets eight months earlier, and the
generals who had tossed out Mr Bashir
when it became clear he would fall. At the
top is AbdelFattah alBurhan (centre), Su
dan’s de facto president and chairman of
the sovereign council, a military and civil
ian body that oversees Mr Hamdok’s most
ly civilian cabinet. Burhan is a general who
rose to prominence under Mr Bashir.
Beneath him is a desert warlord, Mu
hammad Hamdan Dagalo (known as He
medti). He heads the Rapid Support Forces
(rsf), a paramilitary unit that grew out of
the Janjaweed, militias notorious for rape
and butchery of civilians in the Darfur re
gion. Mr Dagalo (pictured right), now dep
uty chairman, rose to power through ruth
lessness towards rebellious Sudanese. To
day he is jostling for primacy in a struggle
that may determine whether Sudan’s third
attempt at democracy since independence
from Britain in 1956 also ends in failure.
Each tells The Economistthat the spirit
of unity is undimmed. “All components of
the transition work together in harmony,”
says General Burhan. As evidence he
points to successes: a peace deal signed
with armed rebels, and the repeal of re
pressive laws, such as one that banned
women from wearing immodest clothing.
General Burhan also highlights the res
toration of full ties with America and Isra
el, which prompted America to remove Su
dan from its list of state sponsors of terro
rism. This has paved the way for Sudan to
win relief on more than $56bn of its debt.
“Our international isolation of more than
30 years is now over,” says the general.
But behind the façade of camaraderie
tension runs deep. Speaking more candid
ly than his colleagues, Mr Hamdok warns
of a “political crisis” stemming from three
challenges that could derail the transition.
The first is division among civilian leaders.
“This was probably the broadest coalition
the country has seen for decades,” Mr
Hamdok explains. “It managed to topple
the dictatorship. But immediately after
wards we started seeing cracks and divi
sions.” Several of its membershave with
drawn from the coalition and returned to
the streets. Those that remain squabble ovK HARTOUM
A general, a warlord and an economist vie to run a would-be democracy