The Economist - USA (2021-07-17)

The Economist July 17th 2021 International 53

form of the Saturn V.
When,  at  the  beginning  of  that  great
drama,  President  John  F.  Kennedy  told
Congress that America’s eagerness to go in­
to space was “not governed by the efforts of
others” he was being less than candid; the
Soviet Union’s efforts were fundamental to
the programme’s rationale. One of the dif­
ferences  between  that  era  of  lunar  rivalry
and this one, though, is that China seems
to be living up to Kennedy’s ideal. It is not
trying  to  leapfrog  ahead  of  America  as
America tried to overtake the Soviet Union.
It is trying to build a similar set of capabili­
ties—and  thus  catch  up  to  some  extent—
and to meet its own national needs, wheth­
er defined in military and economic terms
or, more nebulously, in terms of prestige.
China is capable of routinely launching
satellites  of  all  sizes  which  it  uses  for  its
own  communications,  reconnaissance
and  intelligence  services  and  also  makes
available  to  third  countries.  Last  year  it
completed  a  satellite  navigation  system,
BeiDou, that is a global rival to the gpssys­
tem  which  America  originally  fielded  in
the  1980s,  and  to  the  more  recent  Glonass
and  Galileo  systems  developed  by  Russia
and Europe, respectively. 
The rover that China landed on Mars in
May  was  much  smaller  and  less  capable
than  the  most  recent  rovers  America  has
sent  there.  But  no  other  country  has  yet
managed such a feat at all. Nor has anyone
else  landed  a  rover—called  Yutu­2,  after
the  rabbit  who  lives  on  the  Moon  in  Chi­
nese folklore—on the far side of the Moon.
The  modular  space  station  that  China  is
currently assembling in low Earth orbit is
much more modest than the International
Space Station (iss) on which America, Can­
ada, Europe, Japan and Russia have collab­
orated.  But  it  is  a  more  ambitious  under­
taking than any of those powers other than
America  or  Russia  could  field  alone.  Xi
Jinping,  China’s  president,  certainly
seemed  proud  when  he  had  a  videocall
with the “taikonauts” on board.

My spaceship knows which way to go
And  China  has  started  developing  big
boosters, rockets similar in size to the Sat­
urn  V.  Officials  in  the  Chinese  space  pro­
gramme  have  said  that  when  there  is  a
working  version,  probably  in  the  early
2030s, it will be used to put people on the
Moon;  recently  the  Chinese  and  Russian
space agencies announced that they would
work together towards such a goal. Again,
this is a matter of catching up. The differ­
ence is that this time China is recreating a
capability which America has let lapse.
Recreating a capability is not the same
as  running  in  a  race,  much  less  winning
one.  But  for  China  it  is  just  one  stage  in  a
longer  drawn­out  strategy  which  would
see it eclipse America as the leading power
in space sometime in the 2040s through a

mixtureofitsownperseveranceandAmer­

ica’sdecline.Chinawouldbeheadedfor

theMoonevenifAmericawasnot;itwill

gothereevenif,asseemslikely,America

getsbacktherewellbeforehand.China’s

leadersseemtoseea presenceontheMoon

ashavinga meaningwhichgoeswellbe­

yondbeatinganadversarytoa largelyarbi­

traryfinishline.Therearethingsthatgreat

nationsdowhich smallnationscannot;

therearetypesofgrandeurreservedforna­

tionswhichembodyancientcivilisations

of global import. China’s leaders think

theircountrymustbeseentoshareinall

suchperquisites.Apresencebeyondthe

Earthisoneofthem.

A trulyconfidentAmericamightlookat

theseambitionsinthecontextofitsown

achievementshalfa centuryago,say“been

there, donethat” andmoveon.Today’s

Americalackssuchcomposure.ForChina

tolandontheMoonintheabsenceofan

activeAmericanpresencetherewouldbea

public­opiniondisaster.

WhenmakingthecasefortheArtemis

programmeinMay,BillNelson,thenasa

administrator,brandisheda pictureofChi­

na’s Marsrover attheHouse appropria­

tions committee. “They’re going to be

landinghumansontheMoon.Thatshould

tellussomethingaboutourneedtogetoff

ourduffandgetourHumanLandingSys­

temprogrammegoingvigorously.”

BeatingChinaisa simpleandpopular

proposition. The Artemisprogramme as

drawnupunderPresidentDonaldTrump

hasbeenembracedbyJoeBiden’sadminis­

trationandseemstoenjoysolidbipartisan

backinginCongress.Itisanapproachto

makingAmericagreatagainwhichishard

to opposein principle,evenifitis not

everyone’spriority.

Thenewadministrationhasyettoface

uppubliclytothefactthatitwillnotmeet

theoriginalgoalofbootsontheMoonby

theendof 2024 (whichwouldhavebeen

theendofMrTrump’ssecondterm).Butit

seemshighlylikelythatitwillmanageit

sometimebeforetheendofMrBiden’ssec­

ondterm,shouldheserveone.Aslongas

theprogrammeremainsoncoursetosuc­

ceedbeforeChinagetsoffthepad,a little

delayisunlikelytobadlyaffectsupport.

Artemis also serves other political

goals.TheAmericansputontheMoonby

Apollowereallwhitemen.Thisdidnotgo

unnoticedatthetime;oneofthemosten­

duringworksbyGilScott­Heron,a black

poetandmusician,begins“Aratdonebit

mysisterNell(withWhiteyontheMoon)”.

Muchhasrecentlybeendonetopublicise

thecontributionthatwomenandpeopleof

colourmadetotheprogrammebehindthe

scenes—thisyearnasa’sWashington,dc

headquarters building was renamed in

honourofMaryW.Jackson,theagency’s

firstblackfemaleengineer.Theirrolein

today’sspaceprogrammeisroutinelycele­

brated.WallyFunk,a campaigningaviator

whometallthecriteriaforbeinganastro­

nautinthe1960ssaveforhersex,willbea

spacefaring guestofMr Bezos’s onJuly

20th.Artemis,namedafterApollo’ssister,

istobethemeansbywhichwomenand

non­whitesfirstreachtheMoon.

Giantstepsarewhatyoutake

Whatismore,it hastheadvantageofbeing

comparativelycheap.ForApollonasahad

tocreatenotjusttheSaturnVbutalsothe

command and lunar modules which it

hurledaloft;thetotalcostisputataround

$300bnintoday’sdollars.Then,though,

thesizeandexpenseofthetaskwerenot

aninsuperableobstacle;indeed,theywere

partofthepoint.Theprojectwasa signalof

just how much America was willing to

stakeontechnologicalpre­eminence.

Havingtoexpendsimilaramountsto

recreateanoldcapabilitywouldnotsenda

similarmessage.Fortunately,itisnotnec­

essary.AnewnasarocketwithSaturnV­

likecapabilities,theSpaceLaunchSystem

(sls), isalreadyclosetocompletingitsde­

velopment,asisa newlong­durationcrew

capsule,Orion,thatcanrideontopofit.

nasa also had pre­existing plans for a

smallspacestation,nowknownasLunar

Landingcrew

transfersfrom

OriontoHLS

Lunar

Gateway

HLS Orion

Orioncapsule

launchedtoLunar

Gatewaywithcrew

3

HLSreturnsto

LunarGateway

5

Orionreturns

crewtoEarth

6

HLSdescends

totheMoon

4

1

2

Moon

Humanlandingsystem

(HLS)launchedto

LunarGateway

Hit and Artemis

United States, proposed landing on the Moon, 202

Source: NASA