The Economist - USA (2021-07-17)

68 Science & technology TheEconomistJuly17th 2021

world­record  holder.  Several  other  Olym­

pic champions will miss the Tokyo games

for drugs violations, including Sun Yang, a

Chinese  swimmer,  and  Brianna  Rollins­

McNeal, an American hurdler. Nor is it just

athletes who are punished. In March Rich­

ard  Freeman,  a  former  doctor  to  Britain’s

all­conquering 2012 Olympic cycling team,

was  struck  off  by  regulators  for  obtaining

steroids in 2011 (Dr Freeman is appealing). 

When  it  comes  to  hard  numbers,  offi­

cial  statistics  provide  a  lower  bound  to

what is happening. In 2018, the most recent

year  for  which  there  are  data,  0.6%  of  the

263,519  blood  and  urine  samples  analysed

by wada­affiliated laboratories led to sanc­

tions. Doping was more common in some

sports—and  some  countries—than  others

(see  chart  1).  But  wada’s  numbers  reflect

only  those  who  get  caught.  David  How­

man,  once  wada’s  chief  operating  officer,

says he thinks the real figure in elite sports

might  be  more  than  one  in  ten—which

would imply that over 90% of dopers were

getting away with it. By and large, he says,

only the “dopey dopers” get caught. 

Other  estimates  suggest  even  higher

numbers. A paper published in 2011 exam­

ined  the  prevalence  of  “blood  doping”,  a

catch­all term for ways to increase the ca­

pacity of blood to ferry oxygen to muscles.

The  researchers  analysed  samples  from

more  than  2,700  athletes  and  concluded

that 14% were probably guilty (though the

tests fell short of explicit proof ). That aver­

age concealed wide variations. Some coun­

tries  had  prevalence  rates  as  high  as  48%,

though  the  researchers  diplomatically  re­

fused to name the alleged offenders.

Another study, published in 2018, sim­

ply asked more than 2,000 athletes wheth­

er they were doping. The data were collect­

ed  in  2011  at  two  big  competitions—the

World Championships in Athletics and the

Pan­Arab  Games.  To  encourage  honest  re­

sponses,  the  researchers  used  what  is

called  the  randomised­response  tech­

nique. This guarantees individual answers

will  remain  anonymous  and  untraceable.

They concluded that 43.6% of the athletes

surveyed had doped in the past year. Trans­

lated  to  Tokyo,  that  would  imply  around

4,800 drug­boosted competitors—roughly

in line with Mr Chalmers’ fears.

But all these estimates are just that: es­

timates.  “My  gut  feeling,  from  having

worked with many Olympic­level athletes,

is that the randomised­response numbers

are too high,” says Yorck Olaf Schumacher,

who helped develop the Athlete Biological

Passport  (abp),  a  widely  used  anti­doping

test that tracks blood readings, looking for

suspicious  changes.  Some  athletes  may

not have understood the question proper­

ly,  he  says,  or  may  have  confused  legiti­

mate dietary supplements with doping.

Athletes  dope  because  drugs  offer  big

advantages—potentially  so  big  that  un­

doped rivalshave nohope ofmatching

them.wada, therulesofwhichbindmany

sports, maintains a listof hundreds of

bannedsubstances.Theyrangefromob­

scurechemicalswithnameslikeigf­1lr 3

andaod­9604toinsulin(toboostmuscle

size),amphetamines(fortheirstimulating

effects)andevendiuretics(usedtomask

thepresenceofotherdrugs).Theclandes­

tinenatureofdopingmeansthat,formost

drugs,thereislittlehardevidencefortheir

effectonperformance.Athletesareforced

to relyinstead onlocker­roomrumours

and“streetknowledge”,saysChrisCooper,

a sportsscientistattheUniversityofEssex,

muchofwhichwillprobablybeexaggerat­

ed.Butforsomeofthebest­knowndrugs,

science—andhistory—cangivea senseof

theadvantagesonoffer.

Bettergamingthroughchemistry

Thebest­knownpeds areanabolicandro­

genicsteroids(aas), whichareclosechem­

icalcousinsoftestosterone,thechiefmale

sex hormone.Athletes takethem to in­

creasethesizeandstrengthoftheirmus­

cles,andfortheirpurportedabilitytoen­

hance recovery after exercise,which al­

lows peopleto train harder thanwould

otherwisebepossible.Thoughethicalis­

suesmakestudiestrickytodo,steroids’

strength­enhancingeffectshavebeencon­

firmedbyseveralresearchprojects.

Themostthoroughtrialsontheiref­

fectsonsportwereconductedinEastGer­

many,whichrana state­sponsoreddoping

programmethatbeganinthe1960s.After

thefalloftheBerlinWall,datacollectedby

thisprojectbecameavailabletoindepen­

dentscientists,andwerewrittenupin 1997

ina paperpublishedinClinicalChemistry.

Oneearlytestsubject,a femaleshot­putter

knownonlyas“1/68”,improvedherbest

performancefrom 18 metrestoalmost 20

metres—closeto theworldrecordatthe

time—within11 weeksofbeginninga cycle

ofTurinabol,a syntheticaasdevelopedin

1961 (seechart2).aasprovedparticularly

potent in women, presumably because

theystartwithlowerlevelsoftestosterone

thanmenandthereforehavemorescope

for enhancement. A report delivered in

1977 totheStasi,EastGermany’ssecretpo­

lice,reportedimprovementsinfemaleath­

letes’performancesofuptofivemetresin

theshotput, 20 metresinthediscus,five

secondsinthe400­metresprintandten

secondsinthe1,500metres.

Afteranabolicsteroids,thebest­known

dopingdrugisprobablyepo, a naturalsub­

stancewhichstimulatesproductionofred

bloodcells.Anartificialversionwasdevel­

opedinthelate1980stotreatanaemia.It

(anditschemicalcousins)quicklybecame

rampantinendurancesportssuchasrun­

ningandcycling.Redbloodcellstransport

oxygenaroundthebody,andthesupplyof

oxygentoanathlete'smusclesisanimpor­

tantlimitingfactorinenduranceexercise.

Soboostingred­blood­cellcountscanal­

lowsuperhumanefforts.

Likesteroids,epo’s effectscanbestrik­

ing.Studiesonitarelesscomprehensive,

butone(albeitnotconductedoneliteath­

letes)suggested improvements inmaxi­

mumrateofoxygenconsumptionof12%,

anda 54%increaseinthetimeittookpar­

ticipantstobeexhaustedbyhardexercise.

The ones they caught

Number of anti-doping rule violations, top five, 2018

Source:WorldAnti-DopingAgency

1

Ukraine

India

France

Italy

Russia

150100500

Bycountry Shareofallviolations,%

4.1

5.6

6.0

6.9

7.6

Powerlifting

Weightlifting

Athletics

Cycling

Bodybuilding

250200150100500

Bysport Share of all violations, %

6.6

8.2

10.1

11.6

1.7

Putting on muscle

Effect of an anabolic androgenic steroid* on

shot-put performance of a female athlete, 196

Metres

Source:“Hormonaldopingandandrogenization of athletes:

a secretprogramoftheGermanDemocratic Republic

government”,byW.W.FrankeandB. Berendonk, 1997

*1mgofOral-Turinaboldaily

2

20

19

18

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Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

Drug administered