The Economist July 17th 2021 71
Books & artsCommunisminChinaParty on
“T
he worldcannot be safe until China
changes.” In many ways, China has
changed beyond recognition since Richard
Nixon wrote those words in 1967. The
country was then in the grip of Maoist
madness, desperately poor and cut off
from the Western world. But to many lead
ers in the West today, the warning rings as
true as it did for Nixon, who was then pre
paring to launch a successful campaign to
become America’s president. Their only
quibble might be with his next assertion:
“The way to do this is to persuade China
that it must change.” The West has tried
that, and failed. All it can do now is try to
guess whether, and how, China might
eventually change itself.
For many observers, the omens seem
inauspicious. On July 1st China’s leader, Xi
Jinping, gave a speech at Tiananmen
Square to mark the Chinese Communist
Party’s 100th birthday. It was tinged with
resentment of the West and defensive
about Chinese communism (“a new model
for human advancement”). It looked for
ward to 2049 when the party will hold itsnext centenary celebration—that of 100
years of Communist rule. By then, he
promised, China will be a “great modern
socialist country”, under the party’s “firm
leadership”. How modern it will be in com
parison with the rich world is debatable;
its gdpper person may still lag far behind.
But unlike 30 years ago, when, in the wake
of the Soviet Union’s collapse, the crum
bling of China’s party within a generation
seemed plausible, even likely, few would
bet much on that now. Some cling to hope. Roger Garside is a
former British diplomat whose first book
on China, “Coming Alive: China After
Mao”, published 40 years ago, remains one
of the best eyewitness accounts of the start
of China’s era of “reform and opening”. His
new one, “China Coup”, begins and ends
with a fictional account of a political strug
gle that topples Mr Xi and launches China
on a path to multiparty democracy and rap
prochement with the West. The central
chapters analyse tensions that may induce
such change. Mr Garside points to dissatis
faction among the elite with Mr Xi’s auto
cratic, Westbaiting style of rule, as well as
“broad and deep currents” of support
among ordinary people for reform.
A coup is not an outlandish idea. Chi
nese politics has a long record of intraparty
struggle, including the arrest of Mao Ze
dong’s widow, Jiang Qing, and other mem
bers of the “Gang of Four” shortly after the
chairman’s death. Two years later a power
grab by Deng Xiaoping toppled Mao’s
anointed successor, Hua Guofeng. But then
there were obvious divisions in the party
over whether to persist with Maoist radi
calism. Public contempt for it was clear
even before Mao’s death. In April 1976 the
authorities had crushed large displays of
mourning that erupted in Beijing and oth
er major cities for the late prime minister,
Zhou Enlai. Many ordinary Chinese saw
him as a pragmatist who had been unfairly
attacked by Gang of Four dogmatists.
There may now be leaders who want toWhat happens in China after Xi Jinping’s rule will shape the world’s future→Alsointhissection
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Dickson.Princeton University Press; 328
pages; $29.95 and £25
Rethinking Chinese Politics.By Joseph
Fewsmith. Cambridge University Press; 230
pages; $25.99 and £19.99
China Coup.By Roger Garside. University of
California Press; 256 pages; $23.95 and £20
From Rebel to Ruler.By Tony Saich.
Belknap Press; 560 pages; $39.95 and £31.95
China’s Leaders. By David Shambaugh.
Polity; 416 pages; $29.95 and £25