The Economist - USA (2021-07-17)

72 Books & arts The Economist July 17th 2021

oust  Mr  Xi—he  is  sure  to  have  angered

some, not least with his sweeping anti­cor­

ruption  campaign.  But  it  is  far  from  evi­

dent  that  anyone  at  the  top  of  the  party

would  support  a  push  for  real  democracy,

or even whether most Chinese would back

such a potentially destabilising move.

Bending the rules

Before Mr Xi took power in 2012, there had

been  occasional  signals  that  some  in  the

leadership believed the party should loos­

en its controls. In “China’s Leaders”, David

Shambaugh of George Washington Univer­

sity describes the role played by one senior

official, Zeng Qinghong, in promoting po­

litical reform under Mr Xi’s two immediate

predecessors,  Jiang  Zemin  and  Hu  Jintao.

Mr  Shambaugh  says  reformers  of  that  era

believed  the  chief  problem  with  Mikhail

Gorbachev’s policies in the Soviet Union of

the  1980s  was  that  they  had  been  intro­

duced too late and were implemented too

fast. As Mr Jiang’s right­hand man, Mr Zeng

set  about  promoting  a  modicum  of  open­

ness and even a smidgen of democracy in

the  party’s  inner  workings.  But,  as  Mr

Shambaugh notes, such efforts came to an

end after Mr Zeng retired in 2008. Conser­

vatism reasserted itself. 

Influential people like Mr Zeng may be

waiting,  unseen,  for  a  chance  to  restart

such  limited  reforms.  But  it  is  probable

that, under Mr Xi, the party’s more conser­

vative wing has grown stronger—bolstered

by  a  sense  that  many  Chinese  approve  of

how he is running the country, in contrast

to what they see as Western feebleness. In

“The Party and the People”, Bruce Dickson,

also  of  George  Washington  University,  ar­

gues  that  China’s  retreat  from  liberalisa­

tion  “has  not  triggered  pushback  from

large segments of society, at least not yet”. 

Mr  Dickson  does  envisage  potential

threats to the party, from an economic cri­

sis or split in the leadership to a nationalist

backlash against a perceived failure to de­

fend  the  country’s  interests.  But  what

would  follow  regime  change?  As  he

observes,  the  most  common  pattern

around  the  world  in  the  past  25  years  has

been the replacement of one authoritarian

regime  with  another.  “We  should  not  as­

sume the outcome will be different for Chi­

na,” he warns. Tony Saich of Harvard Uni­

versity  makes  a  similar  point  in  his  book

about  the  party’s  past  100  years,  “From

Rebel  to  Ruler”.  He  suggests  that  “some

within  the  party  might  be  able  to  enable

the shift back to a softer form of authoritar­

ianism”. But there is, he considers, “no rea­

son to expect China to follow its East Asian

neighbours in South Korea and Taiwan and

develop into a robust democracy”. 

Optimists  might  have  hoped  for  a  re­

turn to softer authoritarianism as early as

2022, when, if he were to follow precedent,

Mr Xi would step down as party leader at a

five­yearly  party  congress. But he has

plainly signalled thatheplanstokeephis

jobs,  including  the  presidencyand,most

crucially, the post ofcommander­in­chief

of the armed forces, foratleastanotherfive

years  beyond  that  meeting.Tomany,Mr

Xi’s efforts to stay in powerhavesuggested

an unravelling of whathadbeenwidelyre­

garded as the “institutionalisation”ofChi­

nese politics in recentdecades:thegradual

introduction  of  rulesensuringapredict­

able, regular turnoveratthetop.

Joseph  FewsmithofBostonUniversity

disagrees  with  this  analysis.In“Rethink­

ing  Chinese  Politics”,hearguesthatthe

system  never  really  becamemoreinstitu­

tionalised. On the contrary,theparty’slon­

gevity  “has  occurred throughmanipula­

tion and violation of therules,notthrough

the creation of bindinginstitutions”.MrXi

has  proved  a  keen  rule­bender;but,says

Mr Fewsmith, he is alsotryingtostrength­

en  party  mechanisms.Hisaimisnotto

restrain  his  own  power,buttomagnifyit

by turning the party intoa farmoredisci­

plined  force,  which  isutterlysubservient

to his will.

His  accumulationofso muchpower

may  create  a  dangerousvacuumwhenhe

leaves the political scene.Itshouldbenot­

ed, though, that the partyhassurvivedsev­

eral  stormy  transitionssinceMao’sdeath.

The  one  that  led  to  MrXi’sownaccession

involved fierce politicalstruggles.

Different and the same

Nixon’s  warning  reflectedtheworriesof

another  time  and  a different world. In

America  the  perceivedthreatfromChina

was  its  support  for global communism,

particularly  in  Asia;Chinesetroopswere

pouring into communistNorthVietnamto

help its fight against theAmerican­backed

South.  Today  China  nolongerwagessuch

proxy  wars  or  backs insurgencies. But

America  is  fearful  again—thesedaysofa

China that is a wealthyglobalpower,capa­

ble of bending otherstoitswillwithoutre­

sort  to  arms,  yet  alsoposingafarmore

serious challenge to theUnitedStatesmili­

tarily. Nixon’s wordshavetakenon“anew

urgency”, as Mr Garsideputsit.

He  wrote  them  at the height of the

vicious  conflict  of  the Cultural Revolu­

tion—a  horror  hard  toimagineinMrXi’s

stability­obsessed  era. Butakey feature

endures:  commitment to communism.

The  spectacle  on  July1stoftensofthou­

sands of people singing“socialismisgood,

socialism  is  good”  inTiananmenSquare

was  Mao­style  pageantry. The centenary

celebrations in Chinahavebeena remind­

er of how, for all its weaknesses,theparty

is  not  only  a  remarkable survivor, but

unabashed about its illiberalideology.The

West  can  draw  little  comfortfrompredic­

tions of how China mightchangewhenthe

regime eventually falls. n

Deepseas

Beyond blue

M

anyvisitorsonlyskimthesurface of

the ocean—swimming from the

beachorslicingthroughwhitecapson  a

sailingboat.In“TheBrilliantAbyss”,Helen

Scales,a marinebiologistwhoseprevious

booksexploredtheshallowerreaches of

thesea,divesdeepandrevealinglyintothe

realmbelow 660 feetwheresunlitblue

beginstogivewaytoblack.

AsMsScalesnotes,itisoftensaidthat

moreisknownoftheMoon’ssurface,ex­

posedto anyone with atelescope,than

aboutthegeographyofthedeep­seafloor,

whicha darkcloakofwaterobscures.It is a

rugged, complex and shifting terrain—

subjecttoearthquakesprecipitatedbythe

movementoftectonicplates,andpunctu­

atedbyseamounts(mountainsformedby

volcanicactivity)andhydrothermalvents

thatemitsulphurous,scaldingfluids.

Intheseunderwaterextremesofdark

andcold,andtheboilingwatersdisgorged

byvents,lifesurvivesandeventhrives.  It

includessea cucumbers that slough off

theirilluminated skin todistract preda­

tors,yeticrabsashairyastheirnamesug­

gests,fishmaskedinultra­blackskinthat

makesthemallbutinvisible,anda sponge

thatlookslikeaglassofmilkfrozenin

mid­spill.Aswellasitsroleasa climate

regulatorandcarbonsink,thedeep,inits

vibrantprofusion,promptsreflectionson

thepossibilityoflifeonotherplanets.

Lessbeguilingthingslurkdownthere

The Brilliant Abyss.By Helen Scales.

Atlantic Monthly Press; 304 pages; $27.

Bloomsbury Sigma; £16.99

There were dragons