A Climate for Change

Human Development Report - Croatia 2008 Agriculture^137

Box 8-3: Description of models needed for addressing climate variability and climate change

To address the risks to agriculture from climate vari-

ability and climate change, the effects of the physi-

cal systems must be understood, as well as the sec-

tor as a whole.

Models of the physical environment’s effects

on crops:

Crop models are representations of how crops re-

spond to certain characteristics of the physical

system. Phenological-based simulation models are

considered state-of-the-art in crop yield modelling

related to climate change. These models, which

relate to the timing of plant maturation, include

CERES, EPIC and DSSAT, and they all help to analyse

a number of row crops and are expanding to include

additional crops. These models are readily available

“off the shelf,” but they must be calibrated to local

geo-physical and climatic conditions. In most cases,

this applied work is supported by crop-specific,

plot-level agronomic research and by larger field

studies, which look more closely at issues such as

disease and pest management.

These types of models are generally calibrated from

plot data at a few locations. The calibrated model is

used in a representative fashion to simulate yields

over a number of other locations with the same

characteristics as the plot locations. The models sim-

ulate the effects of daily weather on the growth and

yield of individual row crops. As such, they require

daily observation of a number of meteorological

variables, as well as information about the physical

environment in which the crop is grown, related to

soils, drainage, water uptake, other physical factors,

and “management.” This feature of the models re-

quires the output of Global Climate Models (GCMs)

to be downscaled spatially to local and regional

scales. Then the data have to be transformed to the

hourly level, using a weather generator. These types

of models can also be used to simulate a number

of different types of management practices related

to the type, timing and quantity of inputs applied

(water, fertilizer, harrowing, ploughing, etc.). The

relevant output of these models is the physical yield

of the crop that can be harvested in weight units.

Agricultural sector models:

In addition to modelling the physical systems upon

which agriculture is based, it is necessary to under-

stand how these physical changes will affect the

sector as a whole. To predict how climate change

will affect crop mixes, production levels and crop

prices at the national level a “price-endogenous”

spatial equilibrium (SE) sector model for the agricul-

tural sector is necessary. Price-endogenous simply

means that crop and food product prices are a result

of the model. They are not a variable put in to the

model to yield results. Spatial equilibrium means

that the model represents the different production

possibilities in various locations and the various

methods of transporting products to different mar-

ket locations. Both features are very important for

modelling the impacts of climate change from the

bottom up, because changes in climate will vary in

different places and, because many producers and

consumers in many places will be affected differ-

ently by climate change at the same time, market

prices will also be affected.