A Climate for Change

(^148) Agriculture Human Development Report - Croatia 2008
efit Analysis (CBA) of the irrigation programme, as well
as the other programmes put forward as possibilities
for dealing with water shortages. These options and
whatever is identified as the most cost-effective for
agriculture would represent “no regrets” options for
adaptation if they help address current climate vari-
ability/ climate change. In particular, the irrigation
programme should be re-assessed in terms of a cost-
benefit analysis in comparison to some of the other
programmes outlined above.
Along with examining “no regrets” options for adap-
tation to current climate variability, future climate
change and its effects on agriculture should also be
analysed. This will involve developing and incorpo-
rating downscaled regional climate models into crop
yield studies and then into sector models. This will
provide some level of understanding of the future
risks of climate change to the Croatian economy and
particularly the agricultural sector. It will also yield in-
formation about what areas may be helpful for adap-
tation and what the costs and benefits may be.
Recommendation 3: Take adaptive action –
especially no regrets and low regrets options
Once future climate change is better understood,
along with its likely impacts on Croatian agriculture,
adaptive action addressing present climate variabil-
ity and future climate change can be developed into
projects that will reduce future risks. The implementa-
tion of adaptive actions requires a deliberate change
of practice. Adaptation options in the agricultural sec-
tor can be divided into three groups: management,
technical/equipment, and infrastructure measures.
The management measures can include the choice
of crop variety and pesticides, sowing dates, etc. The
technical/equipment measures refer to the technical
understanding required to implement management
decisions - the distinction between the two being
somewhat arbitrary. These include the adoption of
new husbandry practices, introduction of new equip-
ment, etc., and the adoption of these measures of-
ten largely depends on the advice provided by gov-
ernment agencies. Infrastructural measures require
capital investment and include the establishment of
on-farm water harvesting and storage facilities, irriga-
tions systems, etc.
Existing climate variability is already having a dra-
matic effect on the agricultural sector due to the lack
of water and severe droughts. This has amounted to
approximately 0.6% of total GDP during 2000-2007
or EUR 176 million per year for the period. Future
changes in precipitation rates and increased heat ef-
fects are likely to have increased impacts in the future.
The effects of climate are having and will have a large
impact on vulnerable populations in Croatia, both in
rural communities and potentially because of the ef-
fect on food prices. There are “no regrets” options that
should be further investigated and implemented to
deal with some existing impacts. Further study is nec-
essary into understanding the sector, its interactions
with the economy, and the interaction between cli-
mate and agricultural production.