(^160) The Fishing and Mariculture Industries Human Development Report - Croatia 2008
The observed changes in habitat also affect revenues
in the fishing sector. Species that thrive in cold water
will require more expensive farming methods or may
leave their current habitats entirely. Species that thrive
in warm water will have a longer growing season and
may grow more quickly. Again, these are relationships
that need to be quantified both in terms of magnitude
and terms of revenues gained or lost. Finally, it will be
important to look at indirect revenues in the tourism
sector. Both coastal and inland tourist destinations have
used fish as a means of attracting tourists. Changes in
the composition of the catch and the populations of
fish will undoubtedly affect these communities as well.
9.6.2. Changes in employment
The location of the fishing sector along the coastline
and on islands where there are very limited opportu-
nities for employment (and where alternative employ-
ment is seasonal and contractual, as in the tourism sec-
tor) means that the fishing sector may be particularly
vulnerable to climate change. If the costs of raising
demersal species or the damages of invasive species,
such as bluefish, become prohibitive, problems in the
fishing sector will affect entire communities. Individu-
als who are currently selling fish caught with a licence
for personal consumption may also be vulnerable to
change, as they probably have a limited income and
little adaptive capacity.
Institutional problems could also affect individuals in
the industry. For example, poor economic performance
in the sector and a failure to modernize (and behind
that a lack of financial support and limitation on credit
availability) could threaten to close enterprises and
increase the unemployment rate. This could be a par-
ticular risk factor as Government subsidies are reduced
and eliminated due to EU accession. Again, increased
unemployment would in turn hinder the development
of coastal and continental rural areas, which depend
significantly on this branch of agriculture.
The location
of the fishing
sector along
the coastline
and on islands
where there
are very limited
opportunities
for employment
means that
the fishing
sector may
be particularly
vulnerable to
climate change
Climate scenario
- Changed air temperature
- Changed sea temperature
- Precipitation, salinity
- Solar radiation, wind speed
Link climate changes to marine
environmental conditions- Estimate surface sea water temperature from air temperature
- Develop thermohaline profiles
- Quantify physical changes in habitats due to changes in sea levels using
topographic information - Estimate changes in currents and up-welling zones
Identify habitat parameters
vulnerable to estimated changes
in marine conditions and collect
appropriate biological and
fisheries data- Physiological parameters (thermal niche and tolerance)
- Habitat requirements (flow, substrate, depth) and other life history
information. - Individual process rates (growth and mortality rates).
- Using historical fish yield or catch estimates, develop temperature-process
relationship
Implement assessment
approaches- Develop empirical models to estimate fish yields from historical data and
climate estimations. - Develop habitat suitability models and estimate fisheries response to changes
in habitat quality.
Table 9-4: Conceptual framework for linking estimated climate changes to environmental conditions in marine habitats
and estimating biological resources