Human Development Report - Croatia 2008 Vulnerable Groups^16710.1. Introduction
While climate change is a global problem, it does not
affect all global citizens equally. The UNDP 2007/2008
Global Human Development Report states: “in today’s
world, it is the poor who are bearing the brunt of cli-
mate change.”^1 This is not limited to the world’s poor-
est regions. Just as global climate-related impacts
continue to be distributed unequally and dispropor-
tionately among the poor, impacts at the national
level also mirror this trend.
Vulnerable groups in Croatia are no different, and this
section summarizes some of the key trends from this
Report. First, climate change will differ in its effect on
communities because of different regional climatic im-
pacts, and their subsequent economic impacts. Second,
climate change will act as a threat multiplier that may in-
crease the pressures and problems of ‘at-risk’ groups.
10.2. The different faces of
vulnerability to climate change
Vulnerabilities to climate change depend greatly on
geographic, sectoral and social contexts.^2 Vulnerabil-
ity to climate variability results from the combination
of exposure to the effects of climate and the inability to
adapt. For example, vulnerable groups such as the el-
derly, or those with chronic respiratory problems, are
directly exposed to threats to their well-being during
heatwaves. Other vulnerable groups are indirectly ex-
posed to threats through climate-related impacts that
result in unemployment, such as drought, that threat-
ens the agricultural industry or the loss of certain spe-
cies of fish in the fishing and mariculture industry.
10.2.1. Regional disparitiesGlobally, “poor communities can be especially vulner-
able [to climate change], in particular those concen-
trated in relatively high-risk areas. They tend to have
more limited adaptive capacities, and are more de-
pendent on climate-sensitive recourses such as local
water and food supplies.”^3 Further study, however, is
required to determine the vulnerability of Croatian re-
gions to the impacts of climate change, independent
of other variables. Two considerations might be useful
for further research.
First, it would be useful to ascertain the importance
of weather-dependent economic activities in the
poorest counties and among the poorest people. In
2006, for example, a household survey found that in
high-income regions, people were least likely to grow
food for their own consumption.^4 Essentially, poorer
regions may therefore be more exposed to climate
threats in agriculture – both in terms of employment
and in terms of impacts on household food yield. In
Croatia, as in other transition countries, a lower level
of disposable income is compensated by large-scale
self-subsistence. Therefore, self-subsistence is more
prevalent than in the EU15.I Self-subsistence takes
place in rural areas and in the lower income quartile.
These data point to the fact that in transition coun-
tries, non-monetary income is an important factor for
the standard of living. In Croatia, self-subsistence is
more prevalent in the northeast, and less in the Adri-
atic counties and the Zagreb region.^5I While a comparison with Balkan countries or the Mediterranean
region would be more apt, data on comparative rates of self-subsis-
tence in households in those regions were not available.