Human Development Report - Croatia 2008 Vulnerable Groups^169rectly impact their nutritional resources. On the other
hand, they might be relatively insulated from rising
food prices due to decreased yields. The costs and im-
pacts of adaptive measures for self-sustaining house-
holds, such as crop switching, would also require study
to determine the ultimate impacts.
Further, as Chapter 8 on agriculture examines, pres-
ent climate variability has already caused economic
damage equal to over EUR 176 million per year. Some
of this damage was probably incurred by non-vulner-
able groups, such as major agribusinesses. However,
considering that rural and agricultural households are
generally poorer than urban households, it is likely
that the damage incurred – and future expected dam-
ages – have a greater impact on poorer people. Lower
levels of agricultural production also drive food prices
up for the urban and rural poor.
In addition to its impact on agricultural production,
water shortages could potentially threaten ground-
water resources, which would affect poorer house-
holds that use well water. These wells already have
trouble with contamination, which may be exacerbat-
ed by a drier, hotter climate. Wells could even dry up,
forcing people to dig new wells. Finally, poorer people
who already have difficulty paying their electricity and
water bills may be hurt by a drier Croatian climate.
Chapter 7 concludes that hydroelectric production
is expected to drop significantly in the future, which
would in turn lead to an increase in electricity prices.
Capacity to respond: Unfortunately, low-income ho-
useholds are also less able to adapt to climate threats
and the eventual potential effects of climate change.
Increased prices for food and water, a likely effect of
climate change, would have a greater relative effect on
low-income households. A survey conducted in 2006
found that 13% of Croatian households had lacked
money for food in the year prior to the survey.^12 Rising
food prices due to damages to the agricultural sector
and higher energy prices would increase this figure.
Increased prices for energy – caused by, among other
things, a drop in hydroelectric power production –
would also comprise a larger relative proportion of
the household budgets of lower-income households.
In 2006, 20% of Croatian households surveyed report-
ed difficulties in paying their utility bills on time.^13
In agriculture, lower-income households that farm
“outside of the system” have reduced access to the
social benefits and training that might allow them to
adapt farming practices to changes in climate.
In the tourism sector on the coast, the prevalence of
seasonal and “grey market” jobs means that the lower-
income segment of the workforce may lack access to
social safety-net programmes, such as pensions and
other benefits, making them more vulnerable to the
impacts of unemployment, should tourists stop com-
ing to Croatia. Similarly, small-scale entrepreneurs
who rely on sales to tourists would suffer from a de-
crease in tourism.
In all sectors, the poor are less able to save and less
likely to have access to credit from the banking system
or from sources outside their families.^14 Reduced access
to savings and/or credit limits the available choices to
adapt to climate effects. Using new equipment, chang-
ing businesses, or relocating for new jobs are all adap-
tive measures that require an up-front investment.
While climate variability is generating risks in the lives
of the poor, social protection programmes can help
people cope with those risks while expanding op-
portunities for employment.^15 However, low-income
workers, seasonal workers, and workers “outside of
the system” in the agricultural, fisheries, and tourism
sectors may face more barriers in accessing social pro-
tection programmes.
Income levels are also closely correlated with educa-
tion and regional disparities. Low-income workers are
more likely to have lower levels of education, and will
face more difficulty finding jobs if displaced by cli-
mate-induced trends. Additionally, they may face re-
duced access to training and re-training programmes
because of regional disparities and unawareness of
their choices. These workers are also more likely to
live in communities where there are few viable means
of employment (more remote rural areas for farmers,
and islands or coastal communities for workers in the
fishing and tourism sectors).