A Climate for Change

(^234) Conclusions: A Climate for Change – Findings and Recommendations Human Development Report - Croatia 2008
Energy projections
The Green Paper provides final energy demand
projections for both a business as usual scenario
(BAU) and for a Sustainable Energy Scenario (SES).
The total primary energy supply (TPES) is provided
for the SES scenario only. The Green Paper assumes
that the energy supply will need to support stable
economic growth, with a long-term GDP increase
of up to 5% annually. Croatian per capita consump-
tion indicators are much lower than the EU average,
and electricity imports are among the highest in Eu-
rope. Convergence towards the EU average means
faster growth. In the SES, final energy consumption
increases in the period 2006-2020 by a rate of 2.7%,
and electricity consumption increases by 3.4 %. In
the electricity production sector, a high demand
for new capacity is projected, due to growing con-
sumption and the age of current substations and
power plants (Figure 14-1).
The green paper proposes three scenarios for the
development of the power sector:
BLUE SCENARIO (two gas-fired thermo-electric tur-
bines (TEs), two coal-fired TEs)
GREEN SCENARIO (two gas-fired TEs, one nuclear)
WHITE SCENARIO (one gas-fired TE , 1 coal-fired TE,
and one nuclear)
Installed capacity [MW]
Peak capacity [MW]
Required capacity [MW]
2006
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
200820102012201420162018202020222024202620282030
Sustainable scenario
Figure 14-1: Graph indicating the decrease in power
generation capacity due to the decommissioning of
existing facilities and the required capacity necessary
to satisfy demand.
Figure 14-2: Total GHG emissions until 2030 in Croatia by scenario
Source: MELE 2008.
1990
Base year
Kyoto target
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
35,0
40,0
45,0
50,0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Emission 1990-2005
“Green” scenario
Kyoto target
“Blue” scenario
“White” scenario
Base year
1000 ktCO
eq 2