A Climate for Change

Human Development Report - Croatia 2008 Conclusions: A Climate for Change – Findings and Recommendations^235

GHG projections

Projections of GHG emissions are provided for the

energy sector and for total national emissions levels

(Figure 14-2). Emissions in non-energy sectors were

assumed to remain nearly constant. Projections are

presented for the three SES scenarios described

above: Blue, Green and White. BAU scenario projec-

tions are not presented.

The main measures implemented in these scenarios

are as follows:

• Renewable energy sources
  In all scenarios, 20% of final energy consump-
  tion is produced by renewable sources. Ap-
  proximately 35% of electricity in all scenarios
  is produced from renewable sources by the
  year 2020. In addition to production from large
  hydro plants, 4.0 TWh will be produced from
  new sources. The scenarios also assume a large
  increase in renewable energy from the produc-
  tion of heat and steam. For industrial energy
  production, biodegradable waste is introduced
  in cement production, and communal waste
  incineration is used for heat. In transport, 10%
  of energy will be from biofuels.


• Energy efficiency in the end-use sector
  By 2016 energy efficiency measures should re-
  duce consumption by 19.77 PJ. This represents
  9% of the average consumption from the pe-
  riod 2001-2005. While energy consumption is
  likely to increase during this period, efficiency
  should improve. The same increased efficiency
  rate should continue until 2020.


• Energy efficiency in production
  New power plants will be considerably more
  efficient. A new 400 MW combined heat and

power plant is proposed along with 100 MW in

micro-cogeneration.

• Fuel conversion
  Liquid fuel is replaced by other sources for the
  production of electricity.


• Nucelar power
  Nuclear energy is proposed in two scenarios
  Green and White, becoming operational in 2019.


• Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)
  technology
  The Green Paper assumes CCS technology
  implementation at both new and older coal
  plants after 2020.


• Emissions trading
  Emissions trading and the use of other Kyoto
  flexible mechanisms are assumed. The use of
  emissions trading is proposed to bridge the
  period prior to the commercialization of CCS
  technology for coal plants.

With the above measures, Croatia would be able to

stabilise its emissions between 32 – 34 MtCO 2 /eq

after 2020 under all three scenarios. The use of CCS

technology and the use of nuclear energy pose un-

certainties similar to those in many other countries.

It might be concluded that any additional cost-

effective measures to reduce GHG emissions in the

energy sector and other sectors are very important

for Croatia (as analysed in Chapter 12). The eco-

nomic and technical feasibility is not the only factor

in implementation. For many additional measures,

implementation depends on how successfully bar-

riers will be removed. Social and environmental fac-

tors are related not only to issues such as nuclear

energy, but also to measures in agriculture, land use

change, waste management and forestry.