Human Development Report - Croatia 2008^47What Would Climate Change Affect in Croatia?
Section 2:
Human development is the process of enlarging peo-
ple’s choices, which allows them to exercise greater
control over their lives – resulting in longer, healthier
and more creative lives. The impacts of climate change
have the potential not only to restrict these choices,
but also to force many unwanted choices on individu-
als and society. For example, it is expected that rising
temperatures and reduced rainfall will negatively im-
pact some farmers and reduce local supplies of fresh
water. Increases in the frequency and intensity of ex-
treme weather events (such as heat waves, hail storms,
etc.), rising sea levels, and more intense storm surges,
may not only threaten lives, but also individual liveli-
hoods. Furthermore, these events may force society to
divert more of its resources towards the protection of
property and lives and disaster interventions.
The physical impacts of climate change will be incred-
ibly diverse in nature, in their variability across sectors
and in their magnitude. It is easy to give examples of
potential economic impacts due to climate change.
In the agricultural sector, climate change can reduce
crop yields because of hotter temperatures and re-
duced precipitation. If farmers do nothing to avoid
these lower yields, their net incomes will fall. The same
principles are true for tourism. If the temperature in-
creases at a beachside resort, so that it is literally un-
bearable to go outside for more than a few hours ev-
ery day and the sea water is warm, many tourists may
not be interested in visiting Croatia during the peak
summer holiday season. How do we know? Because
we can see from existing data that tourists already
avoid such places and are willing to pay more money
to travel to places that have a more desirable tem-
perature. On the other hand, changes in the climate
in Croatia, which make summers less attractive, may
result in spring and autumn becoming more favour-
able for tourists. Similar examples of potential impacts
exist in other sectors such as the health sector, the en-
ergy sector, and the fisheries/ mariculture sector. In
general, human development impacts will often be
determined by local factors that are highly variable.
How can we make meaningful comparisons about the
impacts of climate change on human well-being and
how they restrict our choices and thus affect the qual-
ity of our lives?
While there are a number of answers to these ques-
tions, one approach uses economics to measure the
damage caused by climate change and the benefits
of avoiding this damage by adaptation. The main idea
behind this approach is that climate change can cause
“damage” to the production and consumption of mar-
ket goods and services. When damage occurs, it can
reduce profits or reduce the return on investment.
Alternatively, climate change can cause prices to rise,
which can damage ordinary people – especially vul-
nerable groups. However, some impacts can be posi-
tive, such as increased growing seasons for crops, a re-
duced number of deaths resulting from cold weather,
an extended tourist season, etc.
The impacts on specific sectors can have wider ef-
fects on the economy as a whole. For example, the
loss of income by farmers and the higher cost of food
would affect through the larger economy. The same
is true for tourism. If foreign and domestic tourists do
not visit the Adriatic coast because the days are too
hot, hotels, restaurants, supermarkets and vacation
apartment owners will initially be hardest hit by the
resulting drop in tourist expenditures. This will almost
certainly be followed by the larger local, regional, and
national economies. The assessment of the likely im-
pacts from climate change can be described as “as-
sessing vulnerability.”
There are many reasons why both the public and pri-
vate sectors need information about the physical and
economic impacts of climate change - why assessing
vulnerability is necessary. The most general of these is
that it is necessary to know what may happen in order
to plan and minimise the impacts of climate change
through adaptation. Without being able to quantify
these impacts, the only examples that are available
are hypothetical, such as the ones above. WithoutWhat Would Climate Change Affect in Croatia?