A Climate for Change

(^60) Tourism Human Development Report - Croatia 2008
Figure 4-6: Simulated conditions for summer tourism
in Europe for 2071-2100 according to High-Emission
Scenario (IPCC A2).
Excellent (TCI:80-100)
Very good (TCI:70-80)
Good (TCI:60-60)
Acceptable (TCI:80-100)
Unfavourable (TCI:80-100)
III For complete and extensive description of various IPCC SRES sce-
narios please refer to Annex 3.
A previous study^25 used the climate results associated
with two emissions scenarios (SRES scenarios A1F and
B1A)III to examine the impacts of climate change on
the TCI. The study showed the importance of the sea-
sonal impacts of climate change and the importance
of adjusting to them. In the summer months, the
TCI ratings fell along the Mediterranean and Aegean
coastlines but increased in the north, along the Baltic
and North Atlantic coasts. Conversely, the conditions
for tourism along the Mediterranean and Aegean
coastlines improved particularly in the spring and, to a
lesser extent, the autumn. The results for Croatia in this
study are similar to those in PESETA’s A2 scenario and
are typical of coastal areas along the Mediterranean
and Aegean seas. Meanwhile, drier summers in the
interior of Croatia may help to attract more tourists,
although water scarcity might become a problem.
In general, what both studies show is the potential for
a shift in summer tourism from southern to northern
coastlines, and the possibility that these summer tour-
ism losses can be offset by spring/autumn tourism
gains (if tourists can adjust their vacation periods). It
should be kept in mind that changes in the TCI do not
tell the whole story. There are a number of other de-
terminants of tourism flows that cannot be captured
solely by the climate indicators of the TCI. In this re-
gard, the PESETA tourism study is currently analysing
the effects of changes in TCI, due to climate change,
on visitation and subsequently on tourist expendi-
tures. However, this part of the assessment has not yet
been finalized.
4.3.3. Direct impacts of climate change -
extreme weather events.
Coastal and interior Croatia could also be vulnerable
to increases in the frequency and/or intensity of ex-
treme events. Increases in surface water temperatures
in the Adriatic have the potential to increase the in-
Figure 4-5: Simulated conditions for summer tourism in
Europe for 1961-1990.
Excellent (TCI:80-100)
Very good (TCI:70-80)
Good (TCI:60-60)
Acceptable (TCI:80-100)
Unfavourable (TCI:80-100)
Source: PESETA project 2007. Source: PESETA project 2007.
In general,
what both
studies show
is the potential
for a shift in
summer tourism
from southern
to northern
coastlines, and
the possibility
that these
summer tourism
losses can be
offset by spring/
autumn tourism
gains (if tourists
can adjust their
vacation periods)