A Climate for Change

Human Development Report - Croatia 2008 Tourism^61

tensity of storms, including those that produce high
winds, waterspouts and even tornadoes. There may
also be an increase in both the frequency and inten-
sity of droughts. Increased storm intensity brings the
possibility of increased flooding – particularly coastal
and inland flash floods. In addition, the predicted tem-
perature increase in Croatia may produce heat waves
and these higher temperatures can be associated with
higher health risks (including heat stroke and even
death), especially among the elderly, who make up a
substantial portion of the tourist population.IV

At the current time, the necessary information to
model and simulate the effects of greenhouse gas
emissions on forming and frequency of occurence
of “extreme events” are simply not sufficient. Avaible
data are limited and sufficient only to research and
model so-called ENSO-phenomena, (El Niño Southern
Oscillation phenomena such as El Niño and La Niña
events), so the conclusions about climate change in
this area are still not certain. At the same time, our
knowledge about the impact of extreme events on
tourism is very limited, although there is every rea-
son to believe that tourists do consider such factors
when they plan their vacations and would prefer to
avoid extreme events rather than experience them.
Thus, increases in floods, droughts, severe storms, and
heat-waves – if they do occur in Croatia – will probably
make tourists avoid the country. For tourists who visit
anyway (and for domestic tourists), the development
of advanced medical and disaster relief plans may be-
come more important.

Another result of extreme weather conditions could
be the higher occurrence of forest fires due to hotter,
drier summers.^26 In France, during the extreme heat-
wave of 2003, the cost of fighting forest fires increased
almost 50% compared to normal years.^27 The total
damage from forest fires in Croatia for 2007 was ap-
proximately EUR 113 million, according to the Croatian
Forests company data. The estimated damage from
the karstic areas (mostly coastal) was approximately
EUR 108 million and on the continent amounted to
approximately EUR 5 million.^28 Most of these fires oc-
cured along the coast near primary tourist areas. For
example, in 2007, forest fires near Dubrovnik almost

forced the evacuation of part of the city during the

peak tourist month of August.^29

4.3.4. Indirect climate impacts

Less attractive marine ecosystems

In addition to its climate, tourists are attracted to a

location by the availability of participatory activities,

goods and services, and the natural beauty there – all

indirectly influenced by climate change. Warmer tem-

peratures can lead to a variety of changes in coastal

and inland ecosystems, such as changing the species

composition of ecosystems, and the levels of algae

(which cloud the water). In particular, it is possible that

seawater could become less attractive (due to higher

nutrient concentrations, a loss of biodiversity and de-

creases in transparency), which could negatively im-

pact tourism.

Occasional plankton algae (phytoplankton) blooms

already cause tourists to avoid affected areas.^30 Al-

gae blooms can also cause damage to the fishing in-

dustry (with indirect damage to tourism because of

less seafood). Last year in Istria, algal blooms in the

sea caused fishermen approximately EUR 127,000 in

damage (in terms of lost fish).^31 While the quality of

Croatian seawater is currently among the highest in

the world, it is also vulnerable to multiple types of

stress. These include warmer water temperatures and

pollution from municipal, industrial, agricultural and

marine transportation. Various pollutants combined

with warm water can lead to a state of eutrophication

and algal blooms which can become “dead zones” that

have very little oxygen content. Also, alien species

may become prevalent while indigenous species die

out due to changes to the seawater. For example, the

seawater may become warmer and thus more suitable

for tropical species and less suitable for native species

(see Chapter 9 for more on the role of sea temperature

and fish species).^32 Atmospheric CO 2 concentration

increases can also lead to the increased acidity of sea-

water, and the possible effects of this on marine eco-

IV More about importance of climate change on human health can

be found in Chapter 9.