A Climate for Change

(^62) Tourism Human Development Report - Croatia 2008
systems are not yet completely understood. The ecol-
ogy of a marine area is a finely tuned mechanism and
abrupt changes caused by climate change will have
a great influence on it. These changes can affect the
Croatian tourism sector as well as it relies so heavily on
the attractiveness of the ecosystem.
Less attractive inland areas
Another potentially important climate-related impact
on tourism is related to the effect of climate change
on river discharges, lake water levels, fresh water qual-
ity and water temperatures, all of which can influence
the natural and man-made environment. According
to the recent TOMAS survey,^33 the natural beauty of
the country is the third most important reason why
tourists come to Croatia. For example, Plitvice Lakes
National Park received over 927,000 visitors in 2007
(including 840,000 foreign visitors), which accounts
for almost 10% of all visitors to Croatia.^34 Continental
tourism currently represents 5% of tourism income
and, as such, its development has been prioritised in
the Tourism Strategy Report ‘Croatian Tourism Devel-
opment by 2010’.^35 Continental tourism includes vil-
lage tourism, animal watching, fishing, hunting, and
environmental trails, all of which rely on climate as an
important factor (directly or indirectly).
Less water available
Change in the availability of water is another potential
indirect impact. Climate models predict that summers
will be drier and hotter, which will mean an increase
in the demand for water coupled with a decrease in
water supply. Fresh water availability is already an is-
sue on some Croatian islands, where water must be
pumped from the mainland, especially during the
tourist season. Only 25% of island residents believe
they have solved the water availability problem.^36
Another example where freshwater availability may
be threatened is the freshwater storage of Vrana Lake,
where seawater intrusion would immediately and se-
verely affect the islands of Cres and Lošinj, which are
dependent on this water source.^37
Biodiversity loss and other issues
Biodiversity loss could severely undermine eco-tourist
attractions. A collapse of the fragile biodiversity of the
karst system would lead to fewer visits by “nature lov-
ers”. Additionally, changes in the amount of mosqui-
toes and other pests could mean that some areas fea-
turing biodiversity and natural attractions lose their
attractiveness.
The visual appeal of some sites may also be reduced.
For example, changes in environmental conditions in
and around Plitvice Lakes (e.g. organic pollution of wa-
ter), due to a considerable increase in air pollution (CO 2
concentrations), could result in the formation of trav-
ertine, which would eventually destroy the cascades
of the sixteen lakes. The resulting end of tourism in the
area would also mean an end of revenue.^38 While no
physical impact studies have been carried out to ex-
plore this scenario, it is theoretically possible.
Altered agricultural production could also have im-
pacts on food and wine tourism. Food and wine are
ranked as the fifth reason why foreign tourists travel
to Croatia.^39
Figure 4-7: The Croatian coast during the tourist season.
Source: Ivan Bura